Toronto: As Canada enters an election year, the opposition Conservative Party has reached a record high in polling, garnering nearly 50% support, according to a new survey.
Federal elections are scheduled for October this year, but with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government facing instability, elections could be called as early as this spring. The Conservatives are preparing to introduce a no-confidence motion when the House of Commons reconvenes in late January. Their push for an early election is clear, as they have consistently led by at least 20% over the ruling Liberal Party in several surveys released in the last quarter of 2024.
The latest poll, conducted by Nanos Research on December 31, shows the Conservatives at 46.6% in federal ballot tracking, a lead that would result in a supermajority in the next House if these numbers hold.
“Conservative support hits a new long-term high with a 26-point advantage over the Liberals. This has occurred alongside calls for Trudeau to step down. Worry about jobs/the economy has also hit a new four-year high,” said Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at the firm.
It’s not only Trudeau who is struggling in voters’ perception. New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh, who had been in an agreement with the ruling party until September this year, has since rescued the government from falling in no-confidence motions, including one that quoted Singh’s own criticisms of the Trudeau government.
As Nanos told CTV News, “What it means is, going into 2025, the biggest winner is Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, and the biggest losers are both Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh, because both the numbers for them and their parties are down in the close of 2024.”
Even a 21% backing in a poll could be seen as a relief for Trudeau and his party, especially after a shocking poll from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute (ARI) on Monday showed the Liberals sinking to a historic low of 16%.
Trudeau is facing intense pressure from the majority of his caucus to resign. However, he stated he would take the holiday period to reflect on his options. In his New Year message, Trudeau remained upbeat, offering no indication of considering resignation: “As we count down to midnight tonight, I invite Canadians to join me in celebrating all that we have achieved together in 2024 and in looking toward a better and fairer future in the new year.”
