Indian appetite for Russian crude oil is not dwindling, with the latest US trade regulations hiking the price for doing business even more. Imports are expected to increase by 10 to 20 percent in September 2025, equivalent to an extra 150,000–300,000 barrels per day from August levels, according to industry sources.
This growth will possibly be spearheaded by large refiners such as Reliance Industries and Rosneft backed Nayara Energy. From Moscow’s perspective, India’s position is crucial continuous drone strikes in Ukraine have left slashed refining capacity in Russia, about one-fifth, thus providing producers with more crude to export and fewer outlets to process it back home.
Oil, Politics and Global Friction
The growth in India’s crude imports stands in stark contrast to a wide political rift. Washington alleges that New Delhi is undermining Western sanctions by profiteering from discounted oil. This week, President Donald Trump responded with a drastic 50 percent tariff on imports to the US from India.
ALSO READ: US Hypocrisy: All Hue & Cry But No Tariff on Petroleum Products
Yet Indian officials have countered these charges by pointing out the hypocrisy of the West, noting that massive trade in Russian goods continues from the US and EU. While curling through the fallout diplomatically, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is simultaneously setting in for the deepening of ties with Moscow where he recently met with President Vladimir Putin.
Economics of Cheap Oil
It is a simple calculation for Indian refiners. Discounts of about $2-$3 per barrel for Russian Urals crude for September loading are given against Brent, a slightly steeper discount as compared to August. These lower prices shield India’s economy from volatility in the global energy market, while at the same time reducing dependence on the expensive supplies from OPEC.
ALSO READ: India Poised to Become World’s Second-Largest Economy by 2038: EY report
While taking approximately 40 percent of its total crude from Russian sources for its power needs about 1.5 million barrels per day these days India has now become the world’s single largest buyer of seaborne Russian crude.
Analysts suggest that for as long as India refrains from any sort of decisive policy change or until global sanctions tighten further, Russian crude will continue to be an important pillar of India’s energy security. Some forecasts hint that an abrupt halt to Indian purchases may almost wipe out a million barrels a day on the global supply side, driving oil prices to the neighborhood of $100 per barrel. While the US tariffs may dent Indian exports in the short term, the trade-off for discounted energy ensures that New Delhi is unlikely to turn its back on Russian oil anytime soon.
ALSO READ: Trump-tariffs: These are the Stocks That Take the Biggest Hit
