Jan 6 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump's administration faces the possibility of having to refund more than $133.5 billion in tariffs to importers if the U.S. Supreme Court declares unlawful the duties he has imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, according to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency. That is the total assessed through December 14, when the agency issued its most recent statistical update, on imports since the Republican president first imposed tariffs last February under the 1977 economic sanctions law meant to be used only during national emergencies. The court, which in November heard arguments concerning the legality of Trump's IEEPA-based tariffs, is set to issue rulings in cases on Friday, but has not disclosed which ones. Online betting markets Kalshi and Polymarket give Trump a 30% and 23% chance of prevailing, respectively, versus around 40% on each platform prior to the arguments, when the justices signaled skepticism toward the tariffs. It is also unclear whether the court would order refunds if it deems the duties illegal or leave that issue to lower courts or to the federal government to sort out. Trump falsely claimed in a social media post on Monday that the United States has collected or would soon collect $600 billion in tariffs. Total net customs duties reached a record $195 billion in fiscal 2025, which ended September 30, and monthly receipts have been in the low $30 billion range since then, according to U.S. Treasury data. The following table shows CBP's breakdown of the IEEPA-based tariffs assessed on imports as of December 14 by category, exporting country and fiscal year, in billions of dollars. IEEPA-based Fiscal Fiscal Total since tariffs 2026 2025 February 2025 China and Hong $7.74 $30.13 $37.87 Kong, (fentanyl) Mexico, $0.92 $5.56 $6.48 (fentanyl) Canada $0.47 $1.95 $2.42 (fentanyl) 'Reciprocal' $27.38 $54.36 $81.74 all countries, all goods Brazil, $0.61 $0.36 $0.97 punitive India, $1.58 $0.41 $1.99 punitive Japan, $1.66 $0.37 $2.03 post-trade deal tariffs TOTAL $40.36 $93.14 $133.5 NOTES: Fentanyl-related tariffs were first imposed against goods from China on February 4 and on Canadian and Mexican goods that do not comply with a North American trade agreement on March 4. Trump's "reciprocal" duties on goods from countries from 10% to 50% were first imposed on April 5, with subsequent reductions in some cases as a result of trade negotiations. Additional punitive duties of 40% were imposed on goods from Brazil on August 6, while Indian goods were hit with an additional punitive 25% duty on August 27. Modified duties on Japanese goods due to a trade agreement were effective on August 7. (Reporting by David Lawder;Editing by Dan Burns and Will Dunham)
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