Vipin Malik and Sankhanath Bandyopadhyay

Quality Expenditure with Fiscal Consolidation is the key

June 20, 2024

In a complete contrast to the exit poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its single-party majority in parliament, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election results. The loss of majority leaves BJP dependant on its NDA allies, both major like Telegu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United), or JD-U...

Smooth Journey ahead for Indian economy?

February 22, 2024

Despite the decline of US CPI to 3.1% in Jan-24 compared to 3.4% in Dec-23, it is below the consensus expectations of 2.9%. The recently published ISM services data for US has increased at 53.4 in Jan’24, compared to 50.5 in Dec’23. Despite core inflation softening, in a recent interview...

Indian macro is showing resilience amid global shifting gears

November 18, 2023

Pandemic, inflation, and war have taken not only a toll on the global economy, but also the world economic order. The latest conflict between Israel and Hamas has added another uncertainty in the geopolitical tensions. Oil prices remain high and volatile in recent months due to the conflict in the...

The global economy: The emerging trends in a disarray world

October 5, 2023

The outlook for the global economy remains ambivalent with some mixed signals. While beliefs of a soft landing in the US are increasing, concerns about slowdowns in China and Europe are prevalent. The impact of aggressive monetary tightening is spreading, with the services sector joining housing, bank lending and industrial...

India’s robust Q1 GDP numbers reaffirm resilient growth story

September 7, 2023

Domestic demand would revive as consumer expenditure is expected to rise in the September-December festival season, providing further growth momentum to the Indian economy. The growth of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 7.8% in the April-June quarter of FY 24, (compared to 13.1% growth rate seen in Q1 of...

Indian economy’s Goldilocks moment: External headwinds and EL Nino can be a spoilsport

June 10, 2023

As expected, the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent on the 8th June 2023 monetary policy, as inflation (CPI) has shown softening trend. The policy has worked in lag effect, nonetheless it is required to monitor whether the Indian economy is...

United States debt ceiling: Issues and implications

May 2, 2023

The United States debt ceiling is a parliamentary limit that decides how much debt the Treasury Department may incur. In 1939, Congress gave the Treasury the right to issue and manage debt though it restricted the amount of the issuance. The limit applies including the roughly $24.5 trillion of debt...

Revisiting the inflation targeting mandate

March 30, 2023

The recent era of global inflation has reminded us of the Volcker period. In this context, it is worth looking back at the historical background of the inflation-targeting and how successful the regime remained. Borrowing from remarks made by Laurence H. Meyer, Member of the Board of Governors of the...

RBI report: A study of state govt finances

March 16, 2023

According to the RBI’s Report on State Finances (16 January 2023), for 2021-22, state governments have experienced reasonable uplift in their revenue receipts led by own tax and non-tax revenues and grants from the Centre. Nevertheless, unaudited data released by the CAG indicate lower revenue collections than in the revised...

Are we going back towards the era of ‘Volcker Shock’?

August 6, 2022

While U.S. consumers are irritant on several aspects, including healthcare and gun violence, most of them are now concerned about the elevated inflation reaching 9.1%, possibly a nightmare knocking at the door of every U.S. citizen, which happened forty years back during the Paul Volcker and President Richard Nixon inflation...