Even though talks between senior Congress leaders and those from the Aam Aadmi Party have commenced, it is most unlikely that there could be an alliance between the two. The Punjab unit of the Congress has emphatically conveyed it to the central leadership that this association was going to be detrimental, and any attempt to have any tie-up with Arvind Kejriwal, could prove counter-productive, since the rank and file would never support it. The Congress had won eight Lok Sabha seats from the border State last time while AAP is currently in power there. According to a recent survey conducted by an agency, the Congress was ahead of AAP by three percent votes so far as the current popularity ratings were concerned and the BJP was a distant third, one percent ahead of the Akalis, who were placed fourth. However, there are political analysts who do not consider this survey to be accurate and insist that the Akalis would do much better and this would alter the chances of others.
As per preliminary reports, the AAP is prepared to give five seats to the Congress besides Chandigarh in addition to three seats out of seven in Delhi while demanding five seats in Haryana and one seat in Gujarat. Like in Punjab, the Haryana unit has been outright in rejecting any seat sharing with the Aam Aadmi Party on the grounds that it has no presence there, and these kinds of demands were not in the overall interests of the grand old party. In Punjab, the Congress appears to have emerged as the alternative to the AAP and in most areas, the AAP would find it difficult to even identify suitable candidates despite being in power. The problems within the Congress continue nevertheless, and Navjot Singh Sidhu’s statements which are at variance with the line taken by the party could once again prove to be detrimental. Many senior leaders want the High Command to rein in Sidhu if they wish to prevent a 2022 type situation where his actions, amongst other factors, had led to the party’s debacle. Sidhu is the stormy petrel of Punjab politics and has caused enough embarrassment to his party on several occasions.
Other leaders want him out, if he cannot be controlled without any further delay. The AAP is strong at many places, and its freebees have contributed to its popularity though there is growing perception that Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann’s government is unable to come to terms with real governance issues. The Congress has accused it of being vindictive, and the recent case of Sukhpal Singh Khaira’s arrest is cited as an example. There are those who are of the view that if the BJP and the Akalis were to once again come together, the combination would be difficult to overcome. This is ruled out since such a step would be suicidal for the Akalis with many unresolved issues relating to the farmers agitation still fresh in the minds of the people. Unlike most places in India, the Congress could do better than its adversaries, but the question is whether in the overall interests of the INDIA bloc, the central leadership would still give its nod for an alliance with AAP. In Delhi, another round of talks between the two parties is expected soon since the initial parleys remained inconclusive, largely because the AAP representatives did not have any brief from their leader. So far, the AAP has agreed to give three seats but the point is that which are these three seats. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the three seats that the AAP may offer would be Northwest Delhi, West Delhi and South Delhi while keeping New Delhi, Chandni Chowk, East and North East Delhi with itself. The Congress side would be happy if Chandni Chowk, North East Delhi and East Delhi came to its share. These three seats have a sizable Muslim population and after Karnataka and Telangana, it is evident that the Muslims have returned to the Congress fold. In the Assembly polls and in the municipal corporation where the Congress stood nowhere, the AAP had acquired the Muslim votes. However, there is a section which considers AAP to be the `B’ team of the RSS and would hesitate in voting for it in the Parliamentary polls. The other factor is that in an alliance, if the Congress is not contesting on these seats, the AAP would by default get the Muslim vote thus depriving Congress of its major vote base in the national capital and further reducing it to irrelevance. In 2019, the Congress was second in five out of seven Lok Sabha seats and thus has a better claim. The BJP as per poll surveys is still ahead of its rivals and much would depend on the candidates it fields.
There are reports that the BJP’s central leadership may replace most of its Lok Sabha nominees. There are also reports that many supporters of Priyanka Gandhi want her to contest from New Delhi, something which would be extremely risky for her, given that she would be contesting her maiden election. Many BJP supporters claim that Sushma Swaraj’s daughter Bansuri could be fielded from one of the seats in the National capital, probably New Delhi, which currently is represented by Union Minister Meenakshi Lekhi. Similarly, actor, Akshay Kumar, who originally hails from Chandni Chowk could be the BJP nominee from that constituency. A lot of clarity on most issues would emerge in the coming few weeks.
