One of the signals of the importance being accorded by the US to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States to meet the newly elected President Donald Trump is the fact that he will be staying at the Blair House, which is also known as the President’s Guest House. Located just across the White House, this 1824-built Blair House has hosted world leaders such as Charles de Gaulle, Queen Elizabeth II, Emperor of Japan, Boris Yeltsin and Tony Blair among others. So if symbolism is anything to go by, the Prime Minister of India is being given the respect the leader of the world’s most populous democracy, and the most consequential partner of the US in the 21st century, deserves.
The conversation should start from this point and not from the bucket loads of tariff that Trump is supposed to be imposing on India, if the detractors of India-US relations are to be believed. President Trump may have spoken of 100% tariffs on BRICS countries if they go for a BRICS currency, or may have made off the cuff remarks on reciprocal tariffs, but the fact is that these are edges—particularly the reciprocal tariffs bit—that can be smoothened, with a bit of give and take and some intelligent handling. President Trump’s grouse against a BRICS currency is anyway a non-issue, for there is no BRICS currency on the horizon. In fact, India in particular is completely against a BRICS currency as that would mean allowing the BRICS to slide into China’s sphere of influence completely. So whatever the economists at Morgan Stanley and Nomura Holdings might be saying, that India will be one of the two biggest victims of tariffs by Trump—the other one is Thailand—the fact is that the 47th President of the United States needs to be given some sweeteners in the shape of deals and investments by Indian companies that can help him to take his “America First” policy forward—and why not? That is the platform on which he has come to power—Make America Great Again. At the same time, India too has an “India First” policy and it is here that the meeting point has to be found between the two countries, without compromising each other’s interests. Take the example of defence. President Trump wants India to buy more American defence materiel. But for that he has to ensure that first, all sorts of critical technology are shared with India and after that there is no delay in delivery. India has another ask, technology sharing so that the US and India can jointly manufacture some of these defence materiel in India. Earlier there was talk of the possibility of the F-16 being manufactured in India and to be sold across the world. This would have also ensured the induction of multiple F-16s in India’s Air Force. It is hoped that the proposal will be picked up again in Trump 2.0.
President Trump also may want India to buy oil from the US, and reduce its dependency on Russia. But for that the US will have to ensure comparable prices, because on this issue it is India’s interest that will matter first.
If President Trump is looking at investments from India—which many Indian companies are already doing—it’s a two-way street. India too expects investments from American companies.
Seen from a broader perspective, the US cannot have an Indo-Pacific policy without India being at the centre of it—not just as a security provider for the broader region, but also as the voice of the Global South, bringing to the table the issues of the poorer countries of the region, be they in the Pacific or in the Indian Ocean Region, and thus acting as a bridge builder. In terms of defence and security, India and the US have come a long way and Prime Minister Modi’s meeting with President Trump is expected to give a boost in that direction, expanding cooperation. After all, but for India, who is standing up to China not only in Asia, but in the whole world? So if there has to be a free and open Indo-Pacific, there is no option but for deeper cooperation between India and the US. As we have seen even during Trump 1.0, India-US relations were on a growth trajectory. There is no reason why that will not be repeated and taken further during Trump 2.0 as well.
Hence, this latest meeting between the two leaders are very important and is expected to open new doors of cooperation. All eyes are now on the 13 February meeting in Washington, DC, to see what the two leaders unveil for the two countries they respectively head.
