The first phase of Ukraine’s counteroffensive to recapture Russian-occupied territory began weeks ago without fanfare. Apart from claiming that its troops are edging forward, Kyiv has not offered much detail on how it’s going. Taking place mostly out of sight of impartial observers, the fighting in eastern and southern Ukraine pits troops equipped with new Western-supplied weapons against Kremlin forces that spent months digging formidable defences and honing tactics. Here’s a look at what’s happening after more than 16 months of war:
WHAT ARE UKRAINE’S TACTICS?
Fighting has intensified at multiple points along the 1,500-kilometer (930-mile) front line. Ukrainian forces are making steady progress along the northern and southern flanks of the wrecked city of Bakhmut, which Russian forces have been occupying since May.
Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s deputy minister of defense, recently claimed that Kyiv’s forces had destroyed six Russian ammunition depots in the space of 24 hours, a remark that hinted at Ukrainian tactics.
“We inflict effective, painful and precise blows and bleed the occupier, for whom the lack of ammunition and fuel will sooner or later become fatal,” she said.
Britain’s top military officer says that is Ukraine’s first goal: starve Russian units of supplies and reinforcements by attacking logistic and command centres in the rear, including with UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles. Ukraine is also trying to stretch Russia’s resources by simultaneously badgering multiple points along the front line, said Admiral Tony Radakin, chief of the UK defence staff, earlier this month. The US sent Ukraine cluster munitions this week to help bolster its offensive.
WHAT ARE RUSSIA’S TACTICS?
The Kremlin’s forces are using large numbers of anti-tank mines to slow Ukraine’s armoured counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine. That puts exposed Ukrainian attackers at the mercy of Russian drones, helicopters and artillery. Battlefield attrition has diminished Moscow’s military heft. The war has also exposed incompetence and a lack of initiative in Russian ranks, as well as poor coordination.
Radakin, Britain’s commander in chief, said Russia has lost about half its combat strength since its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Also, Russian factories aren’t able to supply enough munitions to replace those lost on the battlefield, he said. For example, Russia has used about 10 million shells in Ukraine, while producing only 1 million new ones, according to Radakin. Similarly, it has lost more than 2,000 tanks but manufactured just 200 replacements, he said. Russians are reportedly conducting offensive operations and making minimal gains in the northern Kreminna forest area.
WHAT NEXT?
The Ukrainian counteroffensive will be “very long” and “very bloody,” U.S. Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said recently. Ukrainian soldiers say the sheer weight of Russian shelling of their positions has been surprising and is slowing Kyiv’s advance.
