When Vladimir Putin sets foot on Alaskan ground this Friday, it won't be merely for handshakes and photo opportunities. Russian President Putin is bringing a pitch that fits Donald Trump's instincts one that marries the prospects of peace with the appeal of business opportunities.
The summit, summoned by Putin and convened in record time, is his first invitation to sit with a US president on US soil since meeting George W. Bush in 2007. The last-minute news sent Kyiv and European capitals scrambling, but for Putin, winning a face-to-face with Trump without making any concessions beforehand is a diplomatic victory.
Putin's agenda will be economics-led. Speaking to Russian media before his departure, his adviser Yuri Ushakov said the negotiations would tap the "gigantic unused potential" of trade and investment between Russia and the US. His team features top economic planners, including Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, who designed Russia's sanctions strategy. Lifting those sanctions has been a long-time one of the Kremlin's high-stakes preconditions for peace.
One of Putin's former Kremlin insiders said Putin's strategy is simple: package peace negotiations on his terms as the doorway to profit-making agreements, and paint Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as the roadblock. "Putin is aware that Trump sees the world in business terms," the source explained. "He'll attempt to make this about opportunity, not solely about war.
But the terms Russia continues to insist on to bring the war to an end remain the same: Ukraine has to retreat from strategic eastern lands and drop its NATO aspirations conditions Kyiv has scorned from the very beginning.
Experts maintain that the hurried circumstance of this summit does not leave much space for a breakthrough. Weeks of setbacks in negotiation talks in Turkey have set the stage for this meeting, but the foundation for a sustainable peace just isn't there.
Still, the optics are important. To Putin, sitting across a table from Trump places him as a determinative figure in what will be done with Ukraine. For Trump, it's an opportunity to make a pitch and possibly peddle the concept of a "land swap" agreement, where Ukraine surrenders governance of Luhansk and Donetsk for a ceasefire.
That proposal has already caused alarm in Europe. While Luhansk is nearly completely occupied by Russia, significant areas of Donetsk including cities well defended like Sloviansk and Kramatorsk are still controlled by Ukraine. Giving them up would be abandoning ground that has taken tens of thousands of lives to hold.
The stakes are high for both commanders. Putin's troops made new gains in eastern Ukraine this week, a move broadly seen as an attempt to intimidate Kyiv into making concessions ahead of the negotiations. Moscow will not relinquish its assets in southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which give it a crucial land bridge to Crimea. At best, sources say, Putin might grant a temporary cessation of long-range missile fire but not a complete ceasefire.
For Trump, leaving with nothing might make the summit appear to be a dud bet. And as Moscow-based political analyst Andrey Kolesnikov warns, even Putin's art of prolonging negotiations has its limits. "At some point he will have to make a concession," Kolesnikov said.
Yet for all the uncertainty, Putin’s goals appear clear. Multiple sources say he envisions dividing the globe into spheres of influence alongside Trump and China’s Xi Jinping a modern echo of the post–World War II Yalta Conference.
“Putin has a messianic streak in everything he does,” Kolesnikov said. “A new Yalta is his dream.”
Whether the Alaska negotiations generate momentum or only contribute to the geopolitics theatre, one thing is certain: both men come with agendas of their own, and each intends to leave without having furthered them.
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