The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) are threatening to withdraw their vital support from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's precarious coalition government, making it one of the most dangerous times in his decades-long political career. A long-simmering issue that is suddenly exploding is the tension over ultra-Orthodox Jewish men's mandatory exemptions from military service.
For years, Netanyahu had managed to hold together a motley coalition of right-wing, religious, and nationalist parties by offering the ultra-Orthodox community political protection and economic perks. But after the Hamas-led attack on October 7, which killed over 1,200 people and shocked the Israeli psyche, the longstanding exemption from Israel’s mandatory military draft is no longer politically palatable.
Most Jewish people in Israel are required to enlist in the military by the age of 18. Ultra-Orthodox men, on the other hand, have historically been excused from studying the Torah full-time. Many Israelis view this carve-out as unfair, and it has become a point of contention, particularly after the October 7 assaults compelled the government to increase military funding and recruiting.
In June 2023, Israel's Supreme Court struck down this exemption as unconstitutional. Now, UTJ and Shas want Netanyahu to urgently pass a new bill to restore the exemption—a move even members of Netanyahu’s own Likud party oppose due to public backlash.
Earlier this week, UTJ lawmakers submitted their resignations in protest. Shas leaders have issued a clear ultimatum: legislate the exemption by the Knesset’s winter session or watch the government fall apart.
With 120 seats in the Knesset, Netanyahu’s coalition holds 64. If both UTJ (7 seats) and Shas (11 seats) leave, that majority plummets to just 46–50 seats, making it virtually impossible to pass laws or survive a no-confidence vote.
Still, the collapse may not be immediate. The Knesset enters a three-month recess starting July 27, giving Netanyahu time to negotiate behind closed doors. The ultra-Orthodox parties are likely using the threat of departure as strategic leverage, not a final divorce—yet.
“We are asking lawmakers to act immediately,” said a UTJ statement quoted in The Times of Israel. “If they don’t, this government cannot continue.”
Opposition leader Yair Lapid wasted no time seizing the moment, declaring Netanyahu’s coalition “illegitimate” and unfit to make decisions of national significance.
“A minority government cannot send soldiers to war or decide the fate of Gaza,” Lapid declared. “It cannot continue to funnel taxpayer money to draft dodgers and religious institutions while Israeli families grieve and struggle.”
Yet despite the turmoil, elections aren’t imminent. The next vote is officially scheduled for late 2026, and unless Netanyahu himself resigns or is toppled by a no-confidence motion—both unlikely scenarios in the short term—the current government can limp along for some time.
Netanyahu’s career has been defined by resilience. Even when battered by corruption trials and multiple elections since 2019, he has managed to survive. But this time, he is bleeding political capital on all sides. His coalition scraped into power in 2022 with just 48.4% of the vote, thanks to Israel's proportional representation system. Since then, public dissatisfaction has grown—even amid military campaigns against Hamas and Hezbollah.
According to polling data from the Israel Democracy Institute, more than 64% of Israeli Jews now support ending the military exemption for the ultra-Orthodox. And if Netanyahu caves to Shas and UTJ demands, he risks further alienating the secular right and center, many of whom already see his leadership as divisive and dated.
While Netanyahu may yet pull off another Houdini act during the Knesset’s recess, the writing on the wall is clearer than ever: Israel’s fragile political alliances, once managed through transactional bargains, are now being tested by a society demanding greater equity and accountability.
Whether or not this government survives the coming months, one thing is certain—Netanyahu's political tightrope has never been thinner.
