President Emmanuel Macron addresses the nation amid political uncertainty following the collapse of Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s government (Photo: Pinterest)
The French Constitution stipulates that Bayrou shall remain caretaker prime minister and continuing routine government activities while Macron considers his next move. Macron can either appoint another prime minister who can garner support from within the deeply fractured parliament or dissolve the National Assembly and call for early election.
France has been shaken after the minority government of Prime Minister Francois Bayrou broke down following a humiliating defeat in a parliamentary confidence vote. The tally 364 votes against to 194 in favor has left President Emmanuel Macron with no choice but to accept the resignation of Bayrou and igniting another period.
Bayrou had staked his political future on garnering support for stringent fiscal reforms to arrest the rising debt burden of the nation but opposition from the far left and the far-right parties teamed up to bring down his administration. If the elections are called to be held and law requires that such elections be held from 20 to 40 days theoretically, although not constitutionally binding but it would have been upon the President to appoint a prime minister out of the ruling party.
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Socialist leader Olivier Faure has made a bold claim that his party is ready to govern, and he has even won the endorsement of former President François Hollande. But it is his promise of higher taxation on ultra wealthy people that would discourage Macron from choosing Faure as resistance to raising taxes comes not just from the conservative deputies but also from within the hard left faction of France Unbowed.
Bernard Cazeneuve, the former Socialist prime minister who may attract support from centrist and leftish deputies alike. His chances depend largely on the Socialists not opposing him and considering his departure from the party in 2022.
Pierre Moscovici, who has solid financial credentials as the head of the Court of Auditors. His prestige might go a long way in calming markets and win over moderate Socialist support and thus becoming a strong candidate for Macron to think about.
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Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau represents a firm right-wing approach that should earn him the votes of the far-right MPs. His hardline positions would negate any attempts toward rapprochement with the left and many centrists and hence making consensus building for a stable majority extremely difficult.
Xavier Bertrand has good support from conservative circles but is under heavy pressure in dealing with the far right and making coalition building difficult. His ability to drum up support for voting as one on the right wing is still doubted and this would act as a deterrent for him.
From the centrist alliance of Macron several of them are emerging as possible successors. Minister for Defence, an obvious continuity candidate is exceptionally loyal and has been with Macron's government since 2017. Accordingly, he almost became the premier last December before being intervened by Bayrou at the last minute.
Labour Minister Catherine Vautrin lies slightly toward the center-right. She might fascinate moderate conservatives but to be the object of criticism from Macron's leftish allies mainly because of her opposition to same-sex marriage.
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Eric Lombard, the Minister of Economy offers a much better prospect. He is very much knowledgeable about public finance and is willing to engage in negotiations with left-wing lawmakers over budget issues also he has no presidential ambitions and so he might act as a unifying figure across political divides. His private ties with Socialist leader Olivier Faure might even grease this cooperation.
Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin, known for his hardline approach to law and order may instead convey the impression of a government leaning toward heavier approaches thus deepening opposition from the left. It is still unclear whether his rumored aspirations for the 2027 presidential election would permit him to accept such an important role.
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