Finland and Sweden which share democratic values are among the most innovative, peaceful and happiest countries in the world. After decades of abstaining from military alliances, the two Nordic countries, Finland and Sweden have applied to join NATO. There are two opposing viewpoints. Some experts believe it will be a historical catastrophe that will cause chaos throughout Europe. However, some experts believe it will make Europe more secure and united than ever before. The big step by both the countries will set an example for small Baltic Sea countries like Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia for their peace and prosperity. In the event that Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia would wind up its military ambitions in Northern Europe.
Finland and Sweden have maintained their NATO neutrality for over 75 years, throughout and after the Cold War. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, public opinion in both nations was overwhelmingly in favour of nonalignment. In fact, this pillar of foreign policy was so well-established and revered that the term “Finlandisation” was coined many decades ago to describe when a country is induced to favour or refrain from opposing the interests of a more powerful nation, despite not being politically allied with it.
However, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has thrown everything into question. An opinion poll conducted in Finland in early May found 76 percent support for joining NATO, with only 12 percent opposition; this represents a significant shift toward membership since the invasion. The majority of the Finnish Parliament voted in favor of NATO membership in a recent vote, with 188 in favor and 08 opposed.
WHAT ARE THE RISKS?
President Putin has frequently cited the potential expansion of NATO into Ukraine as justification for his invasion. Therefore, the addition of Sweden and Finland to the alliance would be perceived as provocative.
According to the Russian foreign ministry, both countries have been warned of the “consequences” of such an action. Dmitry Medvedev, a close ally of the Russian leader, has warned that Moscow’s deployment of nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania, may be precipitated by NATO membership. Former Minister of Finland, Alexander Stubb does not discount these threats, but suggests that cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and occasional airspace violations pose a greater danger from Russia.
ERDOGAN’S TOUGH TALK?
Turkey joined NATO in 1952 and is a very important part of the group. It has the second-largest military in the group of 30 countries, after the United States. Turkey shares good ties with Russia and using this momentum as a bargaining tool to block NATO membership for the two Nordic countries but it seems that it would be short-lived.
WOULD NATO MAKE FINLAND AND SWEDEN SAFER?
Both Finland and Sweden will make Europe safer after joining NATO. The small Baltic Sea states will be surrounded by NATO nations, rendering it hard for Russia to conduct military operations in the Baltic Sea and surrounding regions. Swedish and Finnish Navy would have an equal chance against the Russian Navy.
In addition to the tactical and technical advances in military and logistical cooperation, the general consensus is that it would bring more stability to the region and would halt Putin’s ambition.
WHAT IS RUSSIA’S REACTION?
In the short term, there is speculation that Russia might attack Finland and Sweden as it has already warned all the European countries to maintain the status quo. The Prime Ministers of Denmark, Iceland and Norway have issued a joint statement welcoming the decisions of Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership. The joint statement said that “Should Finland or Sweden be victim of aggression on their territory before obtaining the NATO membership, we will assist Finland and Sweden by all means necessary.”
The geopolitical experts are assessing potential “retaliatory steps” as cyberattacks and hybrid attacks in the long-term goal on Finland and Sweden. The Cyber retaliation from Russia, which sees the expansion of the alliance as a direct threat. Such attacks would not have the severity that Moscow launched against Ukraine amid the Russian invasion of the country.
The energy sector could be another potential arena for Russian retaliation and punishment against NATO’s expansion. As it has traditionally supplied approximately 40 percent of the EU’s gas imports, Russia holds a strong position in this field.
CONCLUSION
Overall, Finland and Sweden’s decision to join NATO is a wise one. It will assist the smaller nations in deterring Russian plans to attack Europe. Additionally, it will preserve peace and stability in the region. The Baltic Sea states would be encircled by NATO nations. It will aid in preserving the status quo in border regions. The nations will once again feel secure and unite for their prosperity. Their joining NATO will further motivate the Ukrainian cause and strengthen the NATO and Europe alliance.
Rajesh Mehta is a leading consultant and columnist working on market entry, innovation and international affairs. Neeraj Singh Manhas is a Director of Research, (Indo-Pacific) at Raisina House, New Delhi. Views expressed are personal.