The by-election of 10 assembly seats in UP may be another test case of new strategy of BSP politics.
The result of 2024 parliamentary election may be read in multiple ways. First of all, it is being read as sign and indication of a’ new churning’ which is taking place in the society and politics of the country. Secondly, this result also revealed that political mood of the public is always unpredictable by its nature. It gives shock to the psephologists and political analysts time to time. This kind of public mood brings ups and downs in the political scene of the country
I am going to tell a story of a political party-named Bahujan Samaj Party which emerged powerfull in the decade of 90s in the political scene of India, especially in North Indian states Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and in some part of Bihar. It also emerged as political alternative among Dalits, marginals of North-South and Central Part of India. After acquiring great success in few decades after its foundation, BSP started being politically weaken in its base political zones such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab. This decline in the performance of the BSP in electoral politics, in fact produced loss of hope among marginal communities in these states. After 2007 UP assembly election BSP and Mayawati, suffered from electoral decline constantly and gradually.It is interesting to observe that in this 2024 parliamentary election result, Mayawati and her party Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) could not get any seat. Due to it, her party remained almost marginalised in the political discourse produced by 2024 parliamentary election.
However, Mayawati is a leader ,who has immense possibility of recovery of her influence in the political scene of the country. But due to various reasons she has faced constant decline in her electoral performances in last decades. The social alliance which Kanshi Ram, founder of BSP, and Mayawati formed in the decades of 90s which developed in latter few decades started eroding. Not only the social alliance which she formed and retained for long time got fractured but also her base vote started escalated. As we know, that the Dalit communities of Uttar Pradesh and other northern Indian states remained base vote of BSP and Mayawati since its foundation. Among Dalits, the castes like Jatav, jaiswar and chamar (l traditionally called leather worker) remained core voters of BSP politics. We observed that slowly BSP lost first of all its electoral support among non-Jatav Dalit communities. The same trend of decline BSP and Mayawati realised in its core base vote that is Jatav community. Kanshi Ram used to say that Chamar (Jatav)which is numerically largest and educated community is politically active community scattered from Punjab to Jharkhand state in Northern Part of India. According to him, this caste may serve as base community for BSP politics in India. Kanshiram was right for long time, but now we observe fracture among chamar and Jatav caste. A section of this community politically moved towards other political party such as Bhartiya Janata Party, Samajwadi Party and Congress.
During this kind of declining situation, a supreme court judgement on subclassification in reservation for schedule caste communities recently came. This judgement allowed the state governments to make provision of sub classification for most marginal and invisible SC and ST communities wherever required. One of the judges from the same Bench also suggested for making arrangements of creamy layer in the process of distributing reservation benefit for SC communities too. This created upheaval in Dalit mobilizational politics. The leaders, intellectuals, civil society organisation, opinion makers of dominant, influential and visible Dalit communities in various states started mobilising and opposing this hon’ble supreme court verdict. In this new political condition Mayawati took lead and strongly criticised this verdict created a hope among numerically largest SC communities that ‘only Bahan ji has potential to fight for reversal of this verdict. However, through this stand She lost trust among most marginal SC communities in various parts of India. But even then, she is planning to make reservation issue as one of main electoral issue in coming elections of Haryana and other North Indian state. In Uttar Pradesh, she is planning to make this issue as a main mobilisational strategy which may create check and control of constant erosion in her core base vote that is Jatav (chamar, jaiswar etc). The party thinks that this issue may cohesively organise its core base vote communities which are numerically largest in number, under the leadership of Mayawati.
It is true that this issue gave new life to Mayawati but it is difficult to say that it may bring entire Jatav community under her leadership. It is difficult because the political party like BJP, Smajwadi Party and Congress are trying to approach these communities by various kinds of representational and policy-oriented promises.
However, in this process she may lose her influence among non – jatav Dalit communities in north Indian state. The result of this strategy of BSP politics firstly in coming state assembly election in Haryana. The by election of 10 assembly seats in UP may be another test case of new strategy of BSP politics. Let’s see how BSP and Mayawati may succeed in reviving their politics.