Something very interesting is going on in Taiwan which will not only rattle China, but also have reverberations across the globe. The island nation appears to be getting ready to cut its umbilical cord with mainland China and declare independence. Pro independence groups are pushing for the renaming of Republic of China as Taiwan in passports, apart from renaming China Airlines, the flagship carrier, as Taiwan Airlines. A step towards this was taken on Wednesday when Taiwanese Parliament passed the proposal on renaming the airline. Another proposal called for enhancing “the visibility of Taiwan” in passports. China and Taiwan have a shared but complicated history. “Republic of China” is a throwback to the time when mainland China was called by that name, from 1912 to 1949. It was in 1949 that the nationalist forces represented by the ruling party Kuomintang lost to Mao Zedong’s communists and fled to the island of Taiwan and set up the government of ROC. Kuomintang survives to this day as KMT. China considers ROC to be illegitimate and seeks Taiwan’s unification with the mainland so that the promise of “one China” is fulfilled. KMT, which was in power in Taiwan until recently, too wants “one China” but considers the government in Beijing to be illegitimate.
However, increasingly, the Taiwanese people are identifying themselves as citizens of a sovereign Taiwan. The demand for “independence” has got a boost with the rise to power of President Tsai Ingwen, who rejects the One China principle. When ROC, already a sovereign nation, declares itself to be Taiwan, it will deliver a body-blow to the One China principle, much to China’s chagrin. But China is unlikely to be a bystander. Under Xi Jinping, China has shifted gears from “peaceful reunification” to military takeover of Taiwan. This demand for unification has a lot to do with strategy, as Taiwan is part of the first island chain that will not allow China to move its fleet into the Pacific Ocean in case of a conflict. If Taiwan falls, the US military base at Guam will be on China’s crosshairs, apart from giving China an easy access to the oceans. Experts in Taiwan are worried about the possibility of a “low-intensity armed conflict” with China. If there is conflict, the United States has the option of coming to the defence of Taiwan, courtesy the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, using which the US has been selling arms worth billions of dollars to Taiwan. Taiwan is one of the most important countries in the global alliance to contain China, with India being another. Taiwan is highly advanced in the cyber arena and is capable of crippling China’s power and other grids, one of the reasons why India needs to enhance its relationship with it. Taiwan is also a good listening post because of people to people connect across the strait. Also, although a small island, Taiwan is a technological powerhouse, with many of its tech giants fuelling China’s growth engine. But now they are moving out of China as US’ trade war makes it prohibitive for Taiwanese companies manufacturing in China to export their products to the West. Also, the “Made in China” label is fast becoming a liability. These tech giants are looking to move to alternate venues with their billions. India is on their radar and will do well to attract at least a part of this investment, for which Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Act East policy and President Tsai Ing-wen’s Southbound policy will need a meeting ground. Important in this will be the recognition by major democracies of Taiwan as a sovereign country. In the future, especially given the aggressive behaviour of China, India along with likeminded countries such as US, France, Japan and UK should give the recognition that Taiwan deserves, and not cling on to a “One China” maxim thrown into the dustbin by the CCP through the Hong Kong security law.