The Imran Khan saga continues to unfold in Pakistan amidst the nation’s political, economic, and social turmoil. Since being removed from office in a no-confidence vote this year, the former Prime Minister has decided to hang around to make his case.
In past months Khan has accused ‘foreign power’ of conspiring against his government. However, this ‘foreign hand’ has taken various forms over the past years, from America and India to China. His allies and supporters allege that Khan scared the adversaries with his ambition to bring real parliamentary democracy to Pakistan and end its enslaved foreign policy.
Recently, he applauded India for its independent foreign policy, calling the decisions made in New Delhi to be for the betterment of ‘its people’ while arguing that the decisions made in Pakistan are for the betterment of ‘other people.’ This invariably brings the cornerstone of Pakistan’s foreign policy over the last decade into question.
THE CPEC PROLOGUE
Before Khan came to power, the Nawaz Sharif government had moved closer to China and turned away from the US. It acted against the US interests in Afghanistan, continued supporting terrorism to hurt India, and welcomed one of the most ambitious projects—the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project—in the region, despite India’s objections. However, during this time, Khan opposed the CPEC.
In a September 2018 interview, Khan’s advisor said that the Nawaz Sharif government did a ‘bad job’ negotiating CPEC with China and gave away a lot. He underlined that the Khan government would review and renegotiate the CPEC agreements. But realizing the equations once in power, Khan metamorphosed into a CPEC admirer, often highlighting the vitality of the Chinese projects for Pakistan’s global resurgence.
However, the CPEC’s progress remained unimpressive over his tenure. While Pakistan’s economy witnessed a downfall, various attacks on Chinese personnel and projects added to Beijing’s worries. A bomb blast in June 2021, killing 13, including 9 Chinese engineers, and another episode in August 2021 in Gwadar, killing a Chinese national, caused panic in Beijing.
The lingering displeasure in Beijing against the Khan government became evident in the aftermath of his ouster. While Chinese media expressed its jubilation and optimism about the new government in Islamabad, reports highlighted Pakistan’s inability to finish just three projects in Gwadar, with a dozen lying unfinished, underlining Beijing’s frustration.
THE US ELEMENT
Some experts have highlighted a different aspect of Khan’s ‘foreign power’ finger-pointing. In a public rally in March this year, he spoke about a letter as proof of the conspiracy sewed against him. Khan said his government was threatened in writing, without naming any country. Many experts linked this threat to the US. But this is not without context.
Just a few weeks earlier, Khan had visited Moscow and met President Putin the day Ukraine’s invasion began. In a way, Khan presented himself as an anti-West leader to please the Russians (as well as the Chinese) and gather financial support like cheaper oil imports. Arguably, while irritating Washington, this did not go down well with the Pakistani military, who hoped to continue its partnership with the US military establishment.
THE SAGA CONTINUES
But the argument in favour of Khan scaring Beijing is stronger. As Pakistan drowned in economic woes, bereft of help from China, Saudi Arabia, or Turkey, it was evident that Khan would have to look to the International Monetary Fund. Moreover, allegations that Khan’s forensic audits of the CPEC projects angered Beijing leave minimal doubt over the rising discontent in Beijing. More so, considering how CPEC’s success is now a matter of self-respect for China after infusing both ‘cash and blood’ into it.
As Beijing looks to rejuvenate its CPEC ambitions, Khan is again making noise in Pakistan. By winning the Punjab province by-elections in July, Khan and his party have shown that it remains more popular than ever. Interestingly, Khan’s party also controls Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, two regions that have demonstrated fierce resistance to the CPEC projects.
What’s next for Khan?
At present, Khan is facing all sorts of troubles. The government in power alleges that a Gulf state paid Khan to derail the CPEC, sink the Gwadar port project, and sabotage Pakistan’s democracy and economy. In addition, the Election Commission of Pakistan recently ruled that Khan’s party received foreign funding, which is illegal under the country’s laws. And adding to this, Khan is now witnessing ire for questioning the impartiality of the Pakistani judiciary in his public rallies and facing terrorism charges for making threats against a judge and police officers.
From alleging India for cooperating with the US to derail the CPEC projects to praising India for its foreign policies, life has come full circle for the former Pakistani PM. But, as Khan looks to gather support for the following year’s general elections, his ongoing transformation is what worries Beijing.
Divyanshu Jindal, Research Associate, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi