As polling for Karnataka closed on Wednesday and exit poll projections flashed across television screens, the question that would have crossed many minds was whether the eventual outcome in the southern state would have a bearing on next year’s Lok Sabha elections.
Most exit poll projections predicted a hung House in Karnataka while putting the Congress ahead. Should these projections hold, the BJP will have lost the only southern state that it has in its kitty. Karnataka sends as many as 28 members to the Lok Sabha, second only to Tamil Nadu at 39, and losing the state would come as a setback for the BJP and its plans to extend its electoral footprint beyond Karnataka.
While losing Karnataka would dent the BJP’s claim of being a pan-India party, it would give a much-needed shot in the arm to the Congress as it eyes a revival in 2024 after a string of electoral reverses.
Most political experts and pollsters are of the opinion that winning Karnataka would be the key to building a good head of steam ahead of the bigger battle in 2024 and going into the next general elections full of belief and conviction.
Led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, their quintessential poll mascot, the BJP has been trying to woo the Christian community in Kerala as part of its long-term goal of making deeper electoral inroads in a state where it remains a fringe force.
While addressing a ‘Vijay Sammelan’ in the national capital after the BJP’s thumping wins in Tripura and Nagaland, PM Modi outlined his vision for the party to entrench its foothold in Kerala by winning over the members of the Christian community.
Again, in Tamil Nadu and Telangana, the BJP’s state chiefs, Aannamalai and Bandi Sanjay, have been waging aggressive campaigns against the ruling parties, the DMK and the BRS, in the hope of turning the tables at the next battle for the hustings.
Telangana is scheduled to go to the polls later this year.
However, a loss in Karnataka would upset the BJP’s long-term vision of making a deeper southern ingress and take them back to the drawing board ahead of the next Lok Sabha elections.