With elections in the ‘cowbelt’ state barely six months away, the focus has shifted to heartland politics. The BJP is currently in power and with the green signal been given for the Ram Janambhoomi temple reconstruction, it certainly won’t like to be out of power when the construction begins. Hence the stakes are very high, which is one reason why the party was quick to quelch the factional fight between Yogi Adityanath and the rest.
Although there was speculation that both PM and Amit Shah were part of the ‘rest’, the BJP (and the duo themselves) were quick to nip this in the bud, playing to the optics by summoning the UP Chief Minister to Delhi and reasserting their faith in him. The message is clear: For now Yogi remains the BJP’s face for the UP polls. Change, if any, will be after the polling if the BJP manages to retain the state.
The Congress, on the other hand, is facing a dilemma. The state has been handed over to Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s charge but it is clear that despite her efforts the party is in no shape to either mount a challenge to the BJP or to make a comeback. The best it can do is to divide the anti-BJP vote. In fact, there is talk of diverting Priyanka from UP before the polls so that the blame of the expected debacle cannot be laid at her door. There is also talk of making her charge of Uttarakhand and Punjab as well so that her results balance sheet can notch some wins. But having said that, the Congress is certainly not a major player in the coming polls.
From all accounts, neither is the BSP. In fact, will it end up being the BJP’s B-Team? Perhaps not, for that would have an adverse impact on Mayawati’s voter base. And certainly, her plans to prop up Satish Mishra as Deputy CM will not suit the BJP which is holding on to its dwindling Brahmin vote bank.
All hope from the Opposition’s point of view, rests on the SP and Akhilesh Yadav. That SP did well in the recent panchayat polls has given them some hope. Akhilesh is counting on the Muslim and the Backward vote base but will that be enough? At Kapil Sibal’s dinner for the Opposition recently, Akhilesh had announced that the downfall of the BJP would begin from UP. But, not many on the table agreed with him with a leader even cautioning him against overconfidence. The Congress is keen to tie up with the SP once again but the SP is not too sure, for it had a bitter experience in the last Assembly polls when it turned out that the Congress had more leaders than workers. However, opposition, to whatever extent, will come from Akhilesh Yadav. What gives the SP some teeth is also its alliance with the RLD; Jayant Chaudhary’s stock has gone up ever since the farmers’ agitation and there are many takers for his party ticket from western Uttar Pradesh.
Into this potboiler comes the Aam Admi Party that has suddenly decided to expand into UP. Sanjay Singh has been holding many press conferences on the issue of corruption in Ram Janambhoomi reconstruction process, but to win over the BJP’s base, the party also needs a presence on the ground.
All in all, wait and watch the next few months for almost every move will be traced to the politics of the Uttar Pradesh polls.