On November 5, the USA will be witnessing its 60th presidential elections. Two widely known personalities Joe Biden from democratic party and Donald Trump from the Republican party are facing each other in the upcoming crucial elections. Interestingly, two candidates are aged and Joe Biden is 81 and Trump is 78 years old. Apart from the buzzy noise by the political leaders from both sides, two candidates are having their own problems at their personal level.
Democrats are more worried than Republicans about their candidate Joe Biden’s age. His recent presidential debate performance was weak during the nationally televised 90 minute debate. Biden struggled to complete sentences and mistakenly claimed to beat medicare, which is a USA government healthcare program for senior citizens. Biden may have meant to defeat covid-19, but ended in saying medicare. This is not the first incident for Biden to lose his senses. Last month, at the G7 meet in Italy, he wandered off while all the leaders met for a photo session. These incidents are widely circulated in social media and questioning Biden’s ability to serve another term.
After observing Biden’s condition, neutral voters may not vote for democratic party. It may hamper democratic party’s vote share in the upcoming elections and will make it easy for Trump to become the next President of the USA. A recent CBS-Yougov poll disclosed that 72% of Americans believe that Biden lacks the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, which is 7 percent less than three weeks ago.
According to a USA Today survey after the first national presidential debate, Trump led over Biden by 41 percent to 38 percent. It is a significant jump from neck to neck 37 percent to 37 percent in the month of May by the same agency. Some prominent democrats are demanding Biden to drop out of the race and give a chance to a new generation. However, democratic party convention will decide its candidate which will be held from 19-22, August, 2024 in the city of Chicago officially. Even if democrats pick a new young candidate it would be challenging for democrats to take the new candidate on popular Trump.
On the other hand, Donald Trump will be aspiring for another term. Trump was convicted of felony crimes in June by a New York Judge Juan Merchan, he is the first former US President who was convicted in such a case. However, Donald Trump challenged the verdict in the Supreme Court of the US (SCOTUS), which is the nation’s highest court. Highest court termed on Monday broad criminal immunity for the presidents in their official acts. After supreme court orders, Trump’s team requested Juan Merchan to delay in sentencing, which was originally scheduled on July 11. Finally, the Judge has granted a request to delay Trump’s sentencing until at least September. However, the Republican party national convention takes place from 15-18, July 2024. During the convention, Trump may be declared as a Presidential candidate of the Republican party. Though he will be presidential candidate for the republican party, the fate of his election will depend on the decision of his sentence in september.
Along with Americans many experts from the various countries are closely observing the presidential race and analyzing its impact at the global level. The foreign policy of the The US in their Presidential election campaign always will take first place. Both the leaders have different approaches in handling global issues and foreign relations. After the 7th, October, 2023 attacks on Israel, the Biden administration strongly backed Israel against Hamas. He continues in supporting Israel supplying weapons and military, but he also urged Israel “to get it over with” arguing its image is being damaged. However, A poll suggests most of the jewish Israelis feel Trump would be better for Israel than Biden and they are disappointed in Biden’s approach in handling the war. Perhaps there is no country in the world which matters more about the US elections than Ukraine. As we all know, US support in the form of money, weapons have been vital in sustaining Ukraines survivability during the war. Trump during his election campaign said he will end the war in a day. A report revealed that Trump has a peace deal that would allow Putin to retain control over Crimea, partially the Donbas region and he would pressurize Ukraine to accept the deal by withholding further US military aid.
In this election foreign policy is not just only about Ukraine, Israel and Gaza. It is also about Moscow, Beijing and New Delhi. Both the leaders discern China as a threat to the US as China is emerging as the largest economy in the next decade. Growing influence of China across the world is also concerning for both the leaders, both the leaders will be tough on Beijing and may take similar economic policies to combat China including raising tariffs on cheap Chinese goods. But both the leaders have different opinions on Taiwan. Biden has reiterated Taiwan’s self governance and its democracy, whereas Trump sees Taiwan as the best trade deal for American businessmen. The US sees India as a geopolitical counter to China in the Indo-Pacific region. Soon India will emerge as the third largest economy, recently Modi elected a third term as India’s prime minister. In Indian perspective, relations may not change much with Modi and the elected leader of the USA. Modi has been working with Biden from the last four years, and the same relation will continue with Biden. On the other hand, from 2016 to 2020 Modi worked closely with Trump and Trump has visited Gujarat, praising Modi for his cooperation with the US relations. Some experts say, by nature Trump is a businessman, so Trump would focus less on being a statesman and more on what he sees as the best deal in all the aspects.
Dr. K. Venkatakrishna Rao, Assistant Professor, IIITDM Kurnool and Visiting Fellow, India Foundation, New Delhi.