Even as there is speculation regarding back channel talks between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) over distribution of seats, both in Punjab and Delhi, there appears to be a lot of resistance from the Congress cadres. The Congress, which was in power in Punjab before the AAP wrested the government, is reluctant to allow Arvind Kejriwal ‘s outfit to have a larger share of seats. Even in Delhi where the Congress has not even a single member in the Assembly, it is wanting at least three out of seven seats, in order to face the BJP, and as a part of the understanding being worked out between the constituents of the Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).
At both places, the local leadership of the grand old party is at variance with its High Command, and is of the opinion that any tie-up with AAP could be suicidal for its survival. On his part, Kejriwal is also trying to negotiate with the Congress to give AAP some seats in Haryana, Gujarat, Himachal and Madhya Pradesh, which seems completely improbable at this juncture. The dilemma before the Congress is that while at the national level, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the primary adversary, at the local level, it is Kejriwal. Similarly, in Bengal, the Congress is fighting to remain relevant with Mamata Banerjee but nationally for both, the BJP is the rival. The Congress-AAP relationship is very peculiar, and for the Lok Sabha elections, both may need each other. According to sources, the AAP has offered the Congress four seats in Punjab including Chandigarh and wants to contest the remaining 10. In Delhi, the Congress wants at least three but the AAP is hesitant to give more than two. The BJP’s situation is worrying for its leadership and despite having some erstwhile Congress stalwarts including Captain Amarinder Singh, to strengthen its campaign, it is very difficult for the party to win anywhere. The BJP-Akali Dal tie-up which at one stage was on the cards, and could have revived the fortunes of both the Panthic as well as the Saffron parties, is not taking place, particularly after the insistence of the Centre to go ahead with the Uniform Civil Code, which the Sikhs construe as an interference in their religious rights. Even in Patiala, that has been the stronghold of Captain Amarinder Singh and his family, and from where, his wife, Preneet Kaur, is the sitting Congress MP, the BJP may find the going difficult. The possibility of Preneet Kaur and Captain’s daughter, being the BJP nominee there is not ruled out. The mood in the border state which has contributed to the country’s self-reliance in food story, besides producing the maximum number of martyrs in the line of duty for the defence of our borders, is not favourable towards the BJP. Things can change over a period of time but if polls were to be held today, the BJP may find it difficult to open its account. The Congress is also struggling to keep its head above water, and if it was to contest the elections with AAP, it’s standing would improve. With Kejriwal not willing to budge on the seat sharing talks, senior Congress leader, Pratap Singh Bajwa, in order to put pressure on him has declared, that his party would contest all the 13 seats of the state on its own and shall also field a candidate in Chandigarh. The grass roots situation is that the AAP is the weakest in Majha, from where Bajwa hails but is strong both in Malwa which has the maximum number of seats and Doaba. Therefore, the negotiations with AAP would also focus on the strengths and weaknesses of the parties. However, simultaneously, there is also a strong speculation that if the Congress-AAP talks fail, the two old and traditional rivals, the Congress and the Akalis could also reach a tacit and secret understanding, and may enter the parliamentary elections in order to both prevent the BJP, as well as oust AAP from the State. The Akalis cannot afford to have an open understanding with the Congress in view of many sensitive issues that can crop up, but nothing prevents it from contesting on some seats in Punjab. This would automatically imply that the remaining would be fought by the Congress even though no formal deal between the two would be ever declared. At this stage both the Akalis and the Congress may deny the possibility of such a thing but things could be worked out gradually.
It is a matter of record that majority of Sikh Congress leaders in Punjab, with the sole exception of Darbara Singh, were in the Akali Dal, at some stage of their political innings. It is also significant to point out that the first election won by the late Parkash Singh Badal in the Punjab Assembly was on the Congress symbol in 1957. The two parties had a good rapport in the 1950s and there is no reason why they cannot revive their understanding, covertly. This kind of arrangement would prove very detrimental to the prospects of the AAP. In Delhi, the Congress may be eyeing seats with a large Muslim component. For instance, North East Delhi is one such Parliamentary constituency where the Congress, in a straight fight with the BJP, can perform exceptionally well. The other seat could be either East Delhi or Chandni Chowk. As things stand and on the basis of feedback from the grassroots, the BJP may have to change most of its nominees in the capital. The best bet for the Saffron Brigade is former Union Minister Harsh Vardhan, who represents Chandni Chowk and has a good connect with workers. Although, it may be early to speculate, but developments in these two regions as also the rest of the country are taking place at a very rapid pace.