Politics in Kerala have churned out governments alternating between the Left Front LDF and the Congress-led UDF every five years since the re-election of late Chief Minister C. Achutha Menon. Although the state has strong communal and caste lines, its community voting patterns have not been loyal to any particular party or front. Votes of all the four major communities—Nair, Ezhava, Muslims and Christians—are divided between the two major alliance groups: The Left Democratic Front (LDF) and Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).
The fight in the state, which went to polls in one phase on 6 April, saw a turnout of roughly 69% (till 5 pm).
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who is leading the incumbent Left Front government and was commended for leading the state in a period of flood crisis and successfully handing the initial few weeks of the COVID pandemic is now facing some anti-incumbency and is fighting to retain power in the state.
The other main alliance, the Congress-led UDF is being steered by Rahul Gandhi who won the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency in 2019. In his attempt to turn around the fortunes of the Congress in the state and the country by winning back Kerala, he is targeting Congress’ traditional minority vote bank. His efforts to retain the Nair upper caste votes are by lining his campaign with temple visits as he did on the last day of campaigning when he visited the Thirunelli temple in Wayanad, his Lok Sabha constituency.
The BJP, which has a bleak presence in the state and managed to win only one seat in the 2016 Assembly election, is vying for the Hindu caste votes and the Christian votes through anti-Muslim sentiment. Its main target is the Nair community which has often shown equal support for both the LDF and the UDF. The recent conflict between the Jacobite and Orthodox factions of the Church in Kerala also gave an opportunity to the BJP to break away Congress’ traditional minority votes in its own favour. The votes have been cast and it remains to be seen if the LDF will make history by retaining power in the state or if the UDF manages to wrestle it back. The extent of the impact of BJP’s communal politics in the state on LDF and UDF’s vote bank will also be clear when the results come out on 2 May.