It is impossible to predict the result of the extremely secretive papal conclave since cardinals’ allegiances change from one round of voting to the next and some attempt to manipulate the process to affect the prospects of their preferred or least-preferred candidates. During the previous conclave in 2013, few foresaw that Jorge Mario Bergoglio would be chosen as Pope Francis. Currently, rumors are centered on these men to replace him:
Pietro Parolin, 70, Italy
Regarded as a moderate “continuity candidate”, Parolin was a close ally of Francis. He has served as the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013, having a major role in diplomatic matters, such as sensitive talks with China and Middle Eastern governments. He is seen as a trusted and dependable papal emissary by worldly diplomats. In 2018, he was the force behind a contentious deal with the Chinese government on the selection of bishops, condemned by some as a sellout to the communist regime. Parolin’s detractors view him as a modernist and pragmatist who prioritizes ideology and diplomatic solutions over hard realities of the faith. To his allies, he is a fearless idealist and passionate advocate for peace.
Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, Philippines
Tagle, the former Manila archbishop, would be the first Asian pope, the most rapidly expanding Catholic region. Once he was thought to be Francis’s favourite candidate to succeed him and a leading contender to carry on the late pope’s liberal agenda, but now seems to be out of favour. He has proposed a more moderate line from the Catholic church regarding gay and divorced couples, but has also opposed Philippine abortion rights.
Peter Turkson, 76, Ghana
Turkson would be the first black pope in centuries. He has been outspoken on such matters as the climate crisis, poverty and economic justice while upholding the church’s traditional views on the priesthood, marriage between a man and a woman, and homosexuality. Yet his stance on the latter has relaxed and he has made the case that laws on the continent are too severe. He has complained of corruption and human rights.
Robert Francis Prevost, 69, US
As much as the Vatican has always been against a pope from the US due to the nation being a superpower and having immense secular global reach, the liberal, Chicago-bred Prevost is one who must be taken seriously. Rendered a cardinal by Francis in 2023, the then-head of the Augustinian order was also named by the late pope to the influential Dicastery for Bishops, which has authority over the nomination of new bishops worldwide. Those senior positions, allied to the fact that he has considerable missionary experience in Peru, having been bishop of the northern city of Chiclayo, may serve to redeem him in the eyes of those who would otherwise not tolerate the notion of an American pope.
Péter Erdő, 72, Hungary
One of the top conservative contenders, Erdő has been a vocal supporter of traditional Catholic doctrine and teachings. He would be a major departure from Francis’s style. He is universally acknowledged to be a great mind and a man of culture. Erdő was the favorite of the late cardinal George Pell who thought he would restore the rule of law in the post-Francis Vatican. In 2015, Erdő seemed to side with Hungary’s nationalist prime minister, Viktor Orbán, when he resisted Francis’s appeal to have churches admit migrants.
Matteo Zuppi, 69, Italy
Made a cardinal by Francis in 2019, Zuppi is regarded as being on the progressive wing of the church, and would be anticipated to carry on Francis’s work, with the same concern for the underprivileged and marginalized as expressed by the late pope. He is (relatively) liberal on gay relationships. Two years ago, Francis appointed him the Vatican peace envoy for Ukraine, where he went to “encourage gestures of humanity”. While there he met Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox church and Vladimir Putin’s friend. He has also met Volodymyr Zelenskyy, president of Ukraine.
José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça, 59, Portugal
Tolentino would be one of the youngest possible candidates to succeed Francis, and could be at an disadvantage for that reason ambitious cardinals are unlikely to want to wait another 20 or 30 years before getting their next chance. He has courted controversy over his tolerance of sodomitical relations and his association with a feminist Benedictine sister who supports women’s ordination and is pro-choice. He is not so different from Francis on most issues; he insists that the church must engage with modern culture.
Mario Grech, 68, Malta
Grech was regarded as a traditionalist but came more in favour of progressive opinions after the election of Francis in 2013. His allies say that his shifting perspectives demonstrate his ability to develop and change. He criticized European politicians who tried to curb the activities of NGO vessels and has articulated support for deaconesses.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, Italy
Since 2020, Pizzaballa has served as the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, a significant position in the promotion of the Christian minority in the Holy Land. Following Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack on Israel, Pizzaballa presented himself as a hostage in return for children held by Hamas in Gaza. In May 2024, he went to Gaza following months of negotiations. He would be assumed to maintain some of Francis’s leadership of the church but has said little on divisive issues.
Robert Sarah, 79, Guinea
Sarah is an Orthodox, traditional cardinal who, at one point, attempted to position himself as a “parallel authority” to Francis, as a Vatican analyst put it. In 2020, he co-wrote a book with the then retired Pope Benedict in defense of clerical celibacy that was interpreted as a rebuke to Francis’s authority. He has condemned “gender ideology” as a threat to society, and has been vocal about Islamic fundamentalism. Like Turkson, he might make history as the first black pope in centuries
