US and Iran are in close proximity to clinching an agreement that closely resembles the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that was rejected by former President Donald Trump in 2018. The fresh accord aims at controlling Iran’s nuclear program for sanction relief. Within the last several weeks, the two countries have engaged in various rounds of negotiations, and the central aim is to hinder Iran from making nuclear weapons.
The talks are set against a backdrop of escalating tensions with Israel, which is resolutely opposed to any agreement permitting Iran to enrich uranium. Notwithstanding Israel’s objections, the talks center on rolling over nuclear limits and regulating Iran’s nuclear facilities in a manner that averts the speedy development of nuclear weapons.
New US-Iran Talks: Move Toward Accord
US and Iran have conducted three rounds of talks in recent weeks. A fourth round is scheduled soon. The objective is to ensure that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. In return, Iran would be relieved of sanctions that have ruined its economy.
The US move to resume talks came as a surprise to Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. He had visited Washington to request military assistance against Iran but came to know that US-Iran talks were already in progress.
JCPOA 2.0: New Provisions, Longer Limits
Sources report that the new agreement is very similar to the 2015 JCPOA but with significant adjustments. The longest of the changes would be to place the limit on Iran’s nuclear activities for as long as 25 years.
The “sunset provisions” within the original agreement that had restrictions diminishing over time could be rewritten today to sustain stricter limits on Iran’s nuclear program.
Conditions for Iran’s Compliance
Iran would agree to limit its stockpile of nuclear material and the number of centrifuges it operates. It would also dilute or eliminate its stock of 60% enriched uranium. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would strictly oversee these measures. Iran, in turn, would be granted major sanctions relief.
Although Israel would not accept any uranium enrichment, Iran maintains its right to enrich uranium. Negotiations are being centered on how much uranium Iran can retain and how many centrifuges it can have.
Challenge of an End-to-End Solution
The new deal would not dismantle Iran’s nuclear plants. Rather, it would place long-term limitations on ensuring Iran cannot rapidly produce a nuclear weapon. Iran has even proposed to sell some of its enriched uranium to the US. This change in approach emphasizes controlling Iran’s nuclear program over the long term, but not dismantling it.
While Israel demands more drastic action, the US is still committed to diplomacy. The hope is to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons without raising tensions to war. This tightrope will define the future of US-Iran relations.
