U.S. cotton exports to India have seen a massive jump in recent months, driven by falling prices, trade tensions with China, and India’s growing need for imported cotton. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, exports of upland cotton to India between February and April 2025 surged to 155,260 running bales, compared to just 25,901 bales during the same period last year.
This marks the highest export level in over 2.5 years, with a notable peak during the week of February 20.
China Backs Off as Tariffs Climb to 125%
The sharp rise in exports to India comes as the U.S.-China trade conflict intensifies, with China hiking tariffs on American goods to 125%, up from 84%. The result? U.S. cotton that once went to China is now being redirected to India.
“Upland cotton grown in Texas and other U.S. regions is now finding strong demand in India,” said Ajay Kedia, Director of Kedia Advisors.
India’s Cotton Crisis Spurs Import Boom
India, the second-largest cotton producer globally, is also a key player in cotton yarn exports. But falling crop yields have flipped the country from a net exporter to a net importer this year.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) slashed its 2025 production estimate by 250,000 bales, bringing the total to 30.1 million bales, nearly 8% lower than the 2023-24 season. The country now faces a shortfall of 2.5 million bales, says Y.G. Prasad, Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research.
Why U.S. Cotton Appeals to Indian Buyers
India primarily imports Extra Long Staple (ELS) cotton from the U.S., which benefits from a 10% duty exemption. In contrast, short staple cotton carries an 11% import duty.
“U.S. ELS cotton is cost-effective due to its high ginning efficiency, better lint yield, and premium fibre quality,” explained Kedia.
As global ICE cotton futures have fallen by nearly 5% this year, American cotton has become even more attractive for Indian importers.
Outlook: India’s Cotton Imports Set to Double
With domestic output declining, the CAI expects India’s cotton imports in 2024-25 to double. In addition to the U.S., India also sources cotton from Australia, Brazil, and Egypt.
While China steps back due to growing tariff walls, India is fast becoming a vital new market for U.S. cotton, offering relief to American farmers and traders facing uncertainty.
