US President Donald Trump visits Riyadh on Tuesday with the goal of extracting a $1 trillion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia. The visit has pompous ceremonies, large weapons sales, and ambitious AI and infrastructure partnerships. One major diplomatic objective is missing, however—normalizing Saudi-Israel relations. The raging Gaza war, Israel’s refusal to sign on to a ceasefire, and the lack of a road map to Palestinian statehood have put the negotiations into cold storage.
As a result, Trump is now forced to operate in a much more complex environment, pitting economic objectives against Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s insistence on a ceasefire before resuming normalization negotiations.
Derailing the Diplomatic Momentum of War in Gaza
Prior to the October 7 Hamas attack, Saudi Arabia was on the brink of a historic breakthrough. Crown Prince bin Salman had been in talks to sign an agreement to recognize Israel in return for US defense guarantees. At the time, momentum was good, and the White House had expected a formal announcement by the end of the year. But all changed once Israel started its retaliatory military operation, which has already killed more than 52,000 Palestinians and displaced 1.9 million in Gaza. Consequently, bin Salman immediately froze the talks, terming Israel’s actions as “genocide.”
Since then, the US has quietly pushed Israel to sign on to a ceasefire—regarding it as the sole means of getting Saudi Arabia back to the negotiating table. Nevertheless, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has opposed any compromise that includes a permanent peace or a road map to Palestinian statehood.
Trump’s Team Signals Optimism—But Israel Left Out
At the same time, Trump’s representative in the region, Steve Witkoff, indicated there is movement at a recent meeting at the Israeli embassy. He indicated that new developments concerning the Abraham Accords are possible. In addition, he stated that several Arab countries are still interested in joining. Netanyahu’s hardline position, however, is a significant hurdle.
In a revealing gesture, Trump has left Israel off this tour. Unlike his earlier visits, when Israel was at the top of the agenda, this omission seems intentional. It indicates restraint—and maybe a tacit recognition that now is not the moment to urge aggressive diplomacy.
Economic and Defense Deals Move Forward
With normalization in the doldrums, both sides have moved into areas where cooperation is less politically troublesome. Discussions on arms sales, civil nuclear cooperation, and artificial intelligence are moving at a breakneck pace. Trump wants to secure the first $1 trillion in US-Saudi agreements, building on the $600 billion already committed.
Meanwhile, bureaucrats are trying to firewall these negotiations from the Gaza war. This containment enables them to concentrate on concrete gains while keeping an eye on the political wind to change. Moreover, both Washington and Riyadh view these agreements as crucial in long-term strategic enjoining.
US Pushes Back Against China’s Gulf Gains
Meanwhile, Trump’s visit is also a sign of a wider US strategy to push back against China’s growing influence in the Gulf. In recent years, China has dramatically increased its presence in the region—particularly in energy, infrastructure, and technology. Therefore, Saudi officials are now pressuring the US to ease investment restrictions that hold back closer business relations.
While Vision 2030 has brought Chinese investment and expertise, Riyadh still appreciates its relationship with the United States. Thus, Trump’s task is to reassure Gulf allies that Washington remains committed even as Beijing becomes increasingly assertive.
Deals Over Diplomacy—for Now
Normalization discussions can eventually resume. But for the time being, the attention has clearly turned elsewhere. Trump’s visit is reminiscent of his first-term visit in pomp and circumstance. But this time around, the regional dynamic is different. The Gaza war has necessitated a reboot.
Consequently, Trump is opting for short-term economic gains over long-range diplomatic dividends. He is hoping to leverage these accomplishments as a bargaining chip for future peace endeavors. In the meantime, he will continue to make alliances, sign agreements, and wait for the day when diplomacy can take its rightful place on stage.
