Russia appears to be capitalising on former US President Donald Trump’s hostility towards NATO to dismantle the alliance’s core. By positioning military infrastructure along its border with Finland — which joined NATO in 2023 — Russia seems poised to challenge the Western alliance once its war in Ukraine slows down.
Trump’s Shift Away from NATO Raises Security Concerns
Traditionally, the United States played a pivotal role in leading NATO. However, Trump has distanced himself from the military bloc during his second term. On the campaign trail, he even stated he would encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO countries that did not follow his terms. This undermines NATO’s collective defence principle, making its future uncertain.
Massive Russian Buildup Near Finland Revealed
According to The New York Times, satellite imagery shows extensive Russian military expansion along the 1,336-kilometre-long border with Finland. The images reveal rows of military tents, vehicle storage warehouses, fighter jet shelters, and an expanded helicopter base. Analysts believe this preparation signals Russia’s long-term intent to apply pressure on NATO.
Russian helicopters have returned to a base near Murmansk, and dozens of fighter planes are stationed at Olenya air base, both within 200 km of Finland. Another base, just 64 km from the border in Kamenka, has seen more than 100 new tents.
“They are expanding their brigades into divisions, which means that the units near our borders will grow significantly — by thousands,” said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, to The New York Times.
Post-War Plans May Shift Russian Focus to Europe
While analysts do not expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to act immediately due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict, they predict he may shift focus to NATO’s eastern members once the war de-escalates. These future incursions may test NATO’s unity, especially if the US refuses to support collective defence.
Trump’s Worldview Aligns with Putin’s Expansionism
Trump’s recent actions support Russia’s position in the Ukraine conflict. In a phone call with Putin, he endorsed Moscow’s stance and dropped his call for a ceasefire, signalling a lack of interest in peace that favours Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Beyond Ukraine, both leaders appear to share a vision of regional dominance. While Putin aims to reclaim the Soviet sphere of influence in Europe, Trump supports a similar doctrine in the Americas. Reports suggest Trump has floated annexation plans for Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal — moves Putin has not publicly criticised.
NATO’s Collective Defence at Risk Without US Backing
Experts argue NATO may crumble if even one Article 5 invocation fails. Jamie Metzl, a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, warns that Russia could push into a smaller NATO nation like Lithuania and provoke an Article 5 response. If NATO fails to mobilise, it could mark the alliance’s functional end.
“If Putin gets anything resembling a victory in Ukraine, what he is going to do next is to needle a Nato member, such as Lithuania… If Nato fails to mobilise in Lithuania’s support, then the collective defence principle of Nato would be dead,” Metzl told Firstpost.
Russia’s Finland Deployment a Prelude to NATO Challenge
The military buildup near Finland aligns with this strategy. The goal, experts suggest, is not necessarily immediate conflict but to erode NATO’s credibility by challenging its principles subtly — just as Russia did with “little green men” in Crimea.