UN Migration Chief Warns Large-Scale Refugee Returns Could Overwhelm Syria

The head of the U.N. migration agency warned on Friday that large-scale returns of refugees to Syria could overwhelm the country and potentially ignite further conflict in the wake of President Bashar al-Assad’s toppling. Amy Pope, director-general of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), expressed her concerns during a press briefing in Geneva following a recent trip to Syria.

The U.N. refugee agency has projected that approximately 1 million people may return to Syria in the first six months of 2025. However, some European countries have already frozen asylum applications for Syrian refugees. “We believe that millions of people returning would create conflict within an already fragile society,” Pope stated, emphasizing that the communities in Syria are not prepared to absorb the displaced individuals.

Pope called for increased support from international donors to help stabilize and rebuild the country, urging governments to “slow down on any plans to send people back.” She highlighted that some communities may still consider fleeing due to uncertainties regarding life under the new authorities, particularly the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, which has historical ties to al-Qaeda.

Concerns were raised about the safety of minority communities, including Christians, who have not yet left but are apprehensive about potential attacks in the coming months. “We heard from communities who are very much worried about the next several months and want to ensure they don’t become targets,” Pope noted.

Assad to flee after more than 13 years of civil war

The recent seizure of control over Damascus by Syrian rebels on December 8 forced Assad to flee after more than 13 years of civil war, effectively ending his family’s long-standing rule. While the fall of Assad has been welcomed by the United States, other Western powers, and many Syrians, uncertainty remains regarding HTS’s governance approach—whether it will impose strict Islamic rule or adopt a more flexible stance.

Widespread apprehension exists among Syrians that the new administration may lean towards hardline religious governance, marginalizing minority communities and excluding women from public life. In a related development, top U.S. diplomats were expected to hold Washington’s first in-person official meetings with Syria’s new de facto rulers led by HTS in Damascus on Friday, aiming to assess how the former al-Qaeda affiliate plans to govern the country.