Ukraine is in turmoil since it was invaded by Russia on 25th February 2022. War has not ended. In reality, there are conflicts of interests between Russia and the West so far as Ukraine is concerned. An effort has been made to highlight some aspects of the current crisis and challenges facing Russia, America, and Ukraine.
RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
It is important to note that Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus are ethnically Slavic States having a long history of commonalities. Hence Russian President Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine to be close to Russia since they were close and cordial socially, politically, and economically during the Tsarist Era and the Soviet Era. There are similarities even in the three languages.
Secondly, Donbas and Luhansk, which are eastern parts of Ukraine, have a common border with Russia and have been inhabited predominantly by Russian speaking population. People in Donbas and Luhansk are predominantly ethnic Russians and have suffered major casualties in the conflict during the last 8 years. They have a strong support of Russia and hence they want to be close to Russia even as they are called separatists. Putin’s objective is to support ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. As opined by Steve Guterman Moscow has portrayed its seizure of Crimea in 2014 and has been extending strong support for separatists at the start of the war that has killed more than 13,200 Russian-speaking people in the Donbas since 2014.
Thirdly, Putin by sending ‘Peacekeeping Troops to Donbas and Luhansk’ eastern regions of Ukraine bordering Russia on the 22nd February 2022 had partly achieved his objective, while leaders of Ukraine, the USA, and the West European States have called it ‘military invasion of ukraine’.
Fourthly, in the context of conflict emerging during the last few months, Russia wants to achieve certain objectives. Moscow wanted the Minsk-2 Deal agreement signed in February 2015 by Ukraine and Russia. Minsk Deal is aimed at ending the war between Kyiv and Moscow-backed separatists who hold parts of the Donbas Luhansk. In essence, Minsk Deal provides Autonomous Status to the two regions Donbas and Luhansk. Moscow says that the United States and the European countries should have put pressure on Kyiv to implement Minsk 2 agreement. By staging joint military exercises just north of Ukraine in Belarus, the Kremlin has been drawing increasing attention in the past two weeks not implementing Minsk 2 Deal and due to the unresolved conflict in the Donbas.
Fifthly, as regards the latest military exercises Russia claims that they are conducted in the Russian territory and they seem to be part of Russia’s policy of putting pressure on Ukraine to implement Minsk-2 deal and resolve unresolved conflict in the Donbas region as per Normandy Format. Even as more than 150,000 military troops are surrounding Ukraine on three sides, Putin and other Russian state officials had repeatedly said they had no plans to invade Ukraine. Russia has close and cordial relations with Belarus and as per reports on 18th Feb. Belarus’s authoritarian leader, Alyaksandr Lukashenka met with Putin to discuss “further activities” regarding joint military forces as the two countries held military exercises together, that has generated a lot of displeasure by the West. However, as per Russia reports it was a routine exercise and as stated by the Belarusian Foreign Minister Uladzimer Makey on 16th February that Russian troops will fully withdraw from Belarus after the conclusion of the exercises.
Sixth, before the invasion on 24th February, Russia had been stating that it had no plan to invade Ukraine, but at the same time wanted guarantees on European security issues, including a commitment by NATO not to expand to countries like Ukraine, or another former Soviet republic, Georgia. Ukraine is not a NATO member, but it has been a “partner country” since 2008. Russia wants assurances that it will never become a member and has massed troops on its western neighbour’s borders.
Seventh, in a dramatic spectacle on 15th February 2022, the Russian State Duma adopted a nonbinding resolution urging President Putin to recognize the separatist-claimed parts of eastern Ukraine as independent states. Coming amid international alarm bells about the major concentration of Russian military forces along the border with Ukraine and in the occupied Ukrainian region of Crimea, the move threw another log onto the fire of tensions in the area.
As per reports, Duma deputies called for the recognition of the Russia-backed separatist groups that control parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces in Ukraine’s Donbas region and call themselves the DNR and LNR, asserting that this would help protect the hundreds of thousands of Russian passport holders living there. As opined by analyst Harmash the Duma resolution was part of an array of pressure tactics including the military build-up, ultimatums presented to NATO and Washington, attempts to destabilize Ukraine. “All this is aimed at forcing Kyiv to implement the Minsk accords in the way that the Russian Federation sees them. Putin having taken all issues into account before signing the Duma Resolution, on 22nd February signed the Duma Resolution recognizing DNR and LNR as independent republics.
Eighth, on 14th February Moscow signaled its willingness to continue talks with the West to ease a crisis over Ukraine as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz embarked on another round of diplomacy with a visit to Kyiv. The French President also had been holding talks with the Russian leaders during the last two months which could not solve the issues between Russia and Ukraine. In this context, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that while Moscow has “warned more than once” that negotiations can’t be “endless,” he also indicated there was still space for diplomacy to defuse the crisis. He added, “It seems to me that our possibilities are far from exhausted.”
Ninth, Putin was candid in opposing the breakup of the former Soviet Union. Hence his objective was to bring together Russia, Belarus and Ukraine closer and form a Reunion of Slavic States and that remains a major challenge. His statement that Lenin gave part of Tsarist Russia to form Ukraine is a part of history more than hundred years back. Putin has candidly stated that Ukraine does not exist as an Independent State and hence his justification of the invasion of Ukraine is not rational.
AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE
The U.S. President Joe Biden had repeatedly stated since January 2022 that there was a very high threat of a Russian invasion on Ukraine even as he stated that the door to a diplomatic solution remains open. If the Minsk-2 deal was implemented, the war could have been avoided. Moreover, as opined by many analysts, the objective of America has been to expand NATO towards East Europe. Hence Biden will welcome Ukraine to join NATO.
Secondly, being highly critical of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, as reported on 17th Feb Russia expelled two officials from the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, which has further aggravated Russia-US relations. The Secretary of State Antony Blinken was frank in stating that the UN Security Council that Russia is “taking steps down the path to war” and that the only responsible way to resolve the crisis over its troop build-up near Ukraine is diplomacy.
Thirdly, looking back the United States and NATO had repeatedly dismissed Russia’s claims of a troop withdrawal in January 2022 and said Moscow was in fact sending more forces to areas near Ukraine. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters after a two-day meeting of the alliance’s defense ministers in Brussels on 17th February that the Russians “have enough troops, enough capabilities to launch a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine with very little or no warning time.” Reports of alleged abnormal military activity by Ukraine in Donbas are a blatant attempt by the Russian government to fabricate pretexts for invasion.
PERSPECTIVE OF UKRAINE
Looking back, social, political, and economic relations between Russia and Ukraine were close and cordial during the Soviet era. After the Soviet breakup, the leaders of Ukraine wanted to bring democracy and establish closer economic ties with the West European countries than with Russia. Mention may be made of the fact that in 2013 -2014 there were agitations against the former president of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovich who was trying to promote closer ties with Russia. As per reports demonstrators in Ukraine took to the streets in 2014 to protest President Viktor Yanukovych’s rejection of a trade agreement with the European Union who was in favor of closer economic ties with Russia. The protests were so severe that Yanukovych had to flee to Russia. Hence Putin had to send Russian troops to seize Crimea in 2014 and Moscow-backed separatist forces were placed in eastern Ukraine including Donbas. This has adversely affected relations between Russia and Ukraine. The present president of Ukraine Zelenky has moved closer to the West.
Secondly, by declaring 16th February as the First Annual Unity Day, the President of Ukraine Zelensky has opened a new chapter in the Contemporary History of Ukraine. It was celebrated by thousands of people even holding the longest flag of Ukraine in the main street of Kyiv to show their support and patriotism. The First Unity Day is being celebrated in the ongoing complex scenario of crisis persisting in the country apart from allegations and counter-allegations by Russia, USA and West European countries. To keep Unity Day to succeed in the years to come there are major challenges for Zelensky.
The writer is a Professor and Former Director, Center for Central Eurasian Studies, Univeristy of Mumbai. Views expressed are the writer’s personal.