In a significant development that may escalate tensions between India and Pakistan, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) in Islamabad has expressed serious concern over the abrupt decline in Chenab River inflows at the Marala Barrage. The shortfall stems from India’s recent decision to limit water supply from rivers flowing into Pakistan, including the Chenab.
According to an IRSA press release issued on Monday, this move could cause a water shortage of up to 21% during Pakistan’s early Kharif season. “It was unanimously noted with concern that the sudden decrease in River Chenab inflows at Marala, due to short supply from India, would result in further shortages during the early Kharif season,” the authority stated.
Treaty Suspension After Terror Attack
India’s decision follows the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a historic agreement that had governed river-sharing between the two nations since it was brokered by the World Bank in 1960. The treaty suspension came after the 22 April terrorist attack in Pahalgam, which India alleges was carried out by Pakistan-based terrorists. The attack killed 26 people, mostly tourists.
In the aftermath, India ramped up efforts to strengthen its internal water management. Preparations are underway to store and control water flow through hydropower projects like the Baglihar and Salal dams in Jammu and Kashmir. This includes flushing and desilting operations, aimed at maximizing reservoir capacity ahead of winter.
Pakistan, heavily reliant on these rivers for agriculture, is now bracing for a tough season. IRSA’s advisory committee forecasted an overall 21% shortage for the early Kharif period, assuming flows return to normal. If not, the deficit could widen further. “The situation will be monitored on a daily basis,” the statement said, adding that shortages during the late Kharif season could be around 7%.
Rising Regional Tensions
This is the first time India has unilaterally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, invoking national security concerns. The move could have long-term implications for regional diplomacy. As both countries have fought four wars and continue to remain in a tense standoff, water has now become the latest flashpoint in the already fragile bilateral relationship.
