Tomohiko Taniguchi, former foreign policy advisor to the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, shared his insights on Indo-Pacific policy while speaking at the NXT Forum 2025. He highlighted major challenges and key opportunities in the region.
Tomohiko Taniguchi emphasized that for any national leader to effectively guide their country, they must maintain an optimistic vision for the future. However, he identified the three biggest challenges in the Indo-Pacific, saying, “Number one, China. Number two, China. Number three, China.” He warned that China would continue to grow both economically and militarily, becoming even more formidable. While some argue that China’s economy is slowing, its population advantage is turning into a liability, and wealthy Chinese citizens are seeking investment opportunities outside the country, the overall economic growth remains significant. Even if China’s growth rate moderates to 3%, 4%, or 5% annually, it would still mean a doubling of the economy within 14 years. As a direct consequence, military expenditure and power will also continue to expand.
Looking ahead five or ten years, Tomohiko Taniguchi pointed out that both Japan and India are inadvertently contributing to China’s growing military power every day. This raises a crucial question: How can democratic nations like India and Japan coexist with and manage the rise of an increasingly powerful Chinese military? The first major challenge, therefore, is China’s military expansion.
The second challenge stems from China’s economic trajectory, which has defied conventional expectations. It was once widely believed that economic growth would naturally lead to the rise of the middle class, which in turn would foster greater political openness and public discourse. However, this assumption has proven entirely false in China’s case. Instead of moving toward liberalization, China is becoming even more authoritarian. This trend is expected to have profound global implications, intensifying the ideological and strategic competition between democratic and authoritarian models of development. This rivalry, which has already begun unfolding, is only going to escalate further.
The third critical challenge, Tomohiko Taniguchi stressed, is Taiwan. Although not directly about China, Taiwan’s future holds immense significance for Japan. He underlined the gravity of the situation, stating that Taiwan’s fate is paramount for Japan’s future. Should Taiwan fall under the control of the Chinese Communist regime, Japan would face a drastically reduced strategic space. Beyond the geopolitical implications, such a scenario would also impact Japan’s national psyche and confidence, making it harder for the country to stand firm against China or maintain its own public discourse. The situation in Taiwan is thus not just a regional issue but a direct and pressing concern for Japan’s security and strategic position in the Indo-Pacific.
