How Strong Are the New Covid Strains? Should You Be Worried?

Fresh Covid-19 cases in major cities like Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, Delhi, and Ahmedabad are reviving anxieties across India. After Hong Kong and Singapore experienced surges, seeing infections in high-risk groups such as infants in Karnataka has caused public health worries. Yet, doctors did not admit any of the infants to intensive care, which brings some comfort.

While that is happening, the Delhi government has also issued an advisory asking hospitals to prepare with sufficient beds, oxygen, medicines, and vaccines if cases increase further.

New Variants of Covid Fuel Recent Spurt

Health specialists advised individuals, particularly the aging population, pregnant women, and those who have certain health conditions, to reinstate simple precautions, including wearing masks indoors and practicing hand hygiene. This is because SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, keeps evolving with new variants and sub-variants even though the pandemic has transitioned to its endemic stage.

Among the newer variants of COVID-19 gaining prominence is JN.1, a descendant of the Omicron BA.2.86 branch, or “Pirola.” Initially detected in the US in August 2023, JN.1 has circulated worldwide because it is highly transmissible and partially immune-evading. Health experts suspect that two of its sub-lineages, LF-7 and NB.1.5, are driving the recent surges of cases in India and Southeast Asia.

JN.1 and its sub-variants contain over 35 mutations in the spike protein — the viral component that allows it to latch onto human cells — making them more infectious. The sub-variants even transmit faster than previous Omicron variants such as XBB.1.5. Their capacity to partially escape immunity from previous infections and vaccination adds to the high numbers of cases over the past few weeks.

Understanding Variants and Immune Escape

SARS-CoV-2 also keeps changing as it propagates, and some changes provide the virus with benefits like improved infectivity or immune escape. If this happens, new sub-variants emerge and can dominate older strains. LF-7 and NB.1.5 have the main mutational characteristics of JN.1 but also possess extra mutations that may make them better immune escape or transmission agents. In April and May, these sub-variants explained more than 70% of Singaporean and Hong Kong sequenced cases.

Surprisingly, viral evolution prefers transmissibility and immune evasion to increased virulence, i.e., the new variants spread more efficiently but are not more virulent than their ancestors. The pattern is in line with most respiratory viruses evolving in highly immune populations.

Should India Worry About Covid-19?

Although this new variant of COVID-19 and its lineage are more transmissible, the specialists assure the population that these variants do not generate more severe illness. Dr. T Jacob John, a renowned virologist, clarified that these are all Omicron sub-variants producing mostly upper respiratory tract illness with little lung infection and no serious hypoxia or blood clotting complications. He likened the situation to influenza season, when there can be occasional spikes, but they are controllable.

“There is no cause for alarm yet,” said Dr. John in an interview with TOI. “The strain of the virus is mild and can be handled. No mortality is reported so far. Caution and preparedness are necessary, but there is absolutely no need to panic.”

Dr. Sunil Khaparde, a senior public health expert, seconded this opinion, pointing out the low fatality and controllable nature of the ongoing surge. Dr. Nitin Shinde, a Nagpur-based infectious disease expert, pointed to India’s natural immunity: “The natural immunity that has been developed in India is strong enough. The prevalent virus now is not leading to severe disease at all. People should not worry.”

Moving Forward: Vigilance and Preparedness

Though the virus now acts more like an endemic respiratory illness, there is a warning issued by specialists to avoid complacency. The Delhi government’s recent warning to mobilize health facilities is a pointer to the reality that there should be no let-up. The aged, pregnant women, and those with comorbidities need to keep following precautions like wearing masks in indoor areas and frequent handwashing.

Vaccination, genomics surveillance, and adaptive public health measures are still essential to the control of this dynamic virus. The recent appearance of JN.1 and its sub-lineages reminds us that SARS-CoV-2 has not disappeared — it has changed, and we must change our response too.