The recent terror attack on Pahalgam’s Baisaran Valley tourists, in which 26 were killed and more than 20 injured, is a sorry picture of the underlying hatred between India and Pakistan. A tranquil meadow where families would take naps is now a graveyard for their kin. The terror organization, The Resistance Front (TRF), believed to be an extension of the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and sponsored by Pakistan’s deep state, is also suspected to have been behind the attack. Pakistan, as expected, has disavowed any involvement.
Though this recent tragedy is heart-wrenching, it is a decades-long reality – one that U.S. intelligence communities predicted over 30 years ago. In 1993, the CIA released a classified report that spoke of the profound fears Pakistan had for India, not merely militarily and economically, but existentially. The analysis, which provided macabre insight, cautioned that a conflict between the two countries could probably break out over tensions related to Kashmir.
1993 CIA Report: An Anticipation of Pakistan’s Kashmir Approach
The 1993 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) by Bruce Riedel, a veteran CIA analyst, arrived at a moment of intense unrest in India as well as in Pakistan. The demolition of the Babri Masjid in India and domestic instability within Pakistan provided the backdrop for elevated tensions. The report predicted a narrow 20% probability of an all-out war but cautioned against the possibility of a chain reaction fueled by a significant terrorist attack, misinterpreted military maneuvers, or spontaneous communal unrest.
The report unveiled an important fact: neither India nor Pakistan desired war, but Pakistan, sensing ever more dwarfed by the rise of India’s economic and military might, may turn to moves out of fear. Such fear would probably express itself in proxy wars, most notably in Kashmir, where Pakistan had long been equipping and financing anti-India terror outfits.
Shift in Power: Pakistan’s Growing Fear of India
The CIA report also highlighted an unsettling reality: the balance of power in the subcontinent had already shifted in favor of India. In 1993, India had stable governance under Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao and economic development headed by Dr. Manmohan Singh. Pakistan, meanwhile, was riddled with political turmoil, army rule, and a weak economy. The increasing imbalance stoked the fears of Pakistan, and it responded with extreme measures to neutralize Indian influence.
Underlying the CIA analysis was the contention that Pakistan, cornered by Indian growth, could resort to asymmetric warfare – terrorism and proxies – as a means of bleeding India without conventional fighting. The report hinted that Pakistan could manipulate religious extremism, not because of religious conviction, but as a political tool to divert the public and bait India.
Place of Terrorism in Pakistan’s Strategy
The CIA report specifically cautioned that Pakistan could adopt terrorism as a strategic option, considering its internal turmoil and economic woes. Pakistan, with its failing economy and unstable political environment, could utilize militants to conduct low-cost, high-impact attacks to destabilize India. The Pahalgam attack is a grim reminder of how these forecasts have materialized.
Moreover, the 1993 document stated that a major terrorist attack, which could be pinned on the other side, may lead to tensions escalating. This premonition comes at a time when tragedy has struck again in Pahalgam with the terrorist attack straining the relations between India and Pakistan once again.
US Role and Warning to India
The NIE wasn’t a classified internal document within the CIA but was also transmitted to the White House and State Department since South Asia was a growing concern region. While confidence-building measures such as hotlines and nuclear agreements were regarded as beneficial, the CIA cautioned that during periods of crisis, such accords could be irrelevant. When violence broke out, the leaders would be acting on impulse, not procedure.
The Pahalgam attack has renewed the very apprehensions voiced in the 1993 CIA report, when analysts cautioned that an escalation of violence would lead to a catastrophic war between India and Pakistan. Now, policymakers in New Delhi are looking back at this dire prediction, acknowledging the escalatory patterns that have so long been part of the India-Pakistan relationship.
