The Indo-Pacific region has emerged as a central arena for geopolitical maneuvering, with both Russia and China playing pivotal roles. While these two powers often present a united front against Western influence, their individual ambitions and strategies in the Indo-Pacific reveal a more nuanced relationship that oscillates between strategic partnership and subtle competition.​

Convergence of Interests

Both Russia and China share a common objective of countering US dominance in global affairs, which has led to increased collaboration in the Indo-Pacific. This partnership is evident in several areas:​

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  • Military Cooperation: The two nations have conducted joint military exercises, signaling a united stance against perceived Western encirclement. These drills serve both strategic and symbolic purposes, showcasing their military capabilities and reinforcing their alliance. ​
  • Economic Initiatives: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) have found points of intersection, particularly in infrastructure development projects that enhance connectivity across the region. This economic synergy aims to create alternative trade routes and reduce reliance on Western-dominated channels.
  • Diplomatic Support: Russia has often backed China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, providing diplomatic cover in international forums. This mutual support extends to opposing Western-led initiatives that they perceive as threats to their sovereignty and regional influence. ​

Divergent Ambitions and Underlying Tensions

Despite these areas of cooperation, several factors highlight the complexities in their relationship:

  • Historical Rivalries: The Sino-Soviet split during the Cold War left a legacy of mistrust that lingers in certain aspects of their interactions. While both nations publicly emphasize their partnership, historical grievances occasionally resurface, influencing their strategic calculations.​
  • Economic Disparities: China’s rapid economic growth has positioned it as the dominant partner, leading to an asymmetry that Russia may find uncomfortable. This imbalance is evident in trade relations, where China’s economy significantly outweighs Russia’s, potentially leading to dependencies that Moscow seeks to avoid.​
  • Regional Influence: In areas like Southeast Asia, Russia maintains defense ties with nations such as Vietnam and India, which have their own reservations about China’s regional ambitions. These relationships allow Russia to assert its influence independently, sometimes in ways that do not align with China’s objectives. ​

Impact on Regional Geopolitics

The interplay between Russian and Chinese strategies in the Indo-Pacific has significant implications:

  • Security Dynamics: Their joint military activities challenge the existing security architecture, prompting responses from the US and its allies. This has led to an arms buildup and the formation of strategic alliances aimed at counterbalancing their influence. ​
  • Economic Corridors: Collaborative infrastructure projects, such as port developments and rail links, are reshaping trade patterns. However, these initiatives also raise concerns about debt dependencies and the strategic intentions behind such investments.​
  • Diplomatic Alignments: The convergence of Russian and Chinese positions in international forums presents a united front that can stymie Western initiatives. This alignment complicates diplomatic efforts to address issues like territorial disputes and human rights concerns.​

The relationship between Russia and China in the Indo-Pacific is characterized by a delicate balance of cooperation and competition. While united in their desire to challenge Western hegemony, their individual aspirations and historical contexts introduce elements of rivalry. For regional actors and global powers alike, understanding this intricate dynamic is crucial for navigating the evolving geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific.