Pulwama Didn’t Break It, But Pahalgam Did — The End of India’s Patience with IWT | TDG Explainer

India and Pakistan’s turbulent history is filled with wars, conflicts, and cross-border tensions. Yet, amidst it all, one agreement remained untouched for decades — the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Even after the deadly Pulwama attack in 2019, India didn’t suspend it. But in 2025, after the Pahalgam terror attack, that line of restraint was finally crossed.

Here’s a comprehensive look at why this treaty has lasted so long, why it wasn’t touched after Pulwama, and what changed now.

What Is the Indus Waters Treaty?

• Signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan with the World Bank as a mediator.
• It divided the six rivers of the Indus basin:
  • Western rivers (Jhelum, Chenab, Indus) were given to Pakistan.
  • Eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) were given to India.
• India was allowed limited use (irrigation, hydropower) on western rivers but couldn’t divert the flow.
• It was seen as a symbol of cooperation, even during wars and crises.

Why Wasn’t It Suspended After Pulwama in 2019?

Despite immense public anger and diplomatic tension post-Pulwama, India chose not to suspend the IWT. Here’s why:

1. International Image: India aimed to project itself as a responsible democracy and peace-abiding state.
2. Legal Constraints: One-sided termination could have resulted in international legal backlash.
3. World Bank’s Role: The World Bank’s involvement meant any abrupt move risked triggering mediation or arbitration.
4. Lack of Infrastructure: India lacked the technical infrastructure to divert or hold the western rivers’ water.
5. Mixed Global Opinion: The global community wasn’t fully aligned with India’s concerns regarding Pakistan-backed terrorism.
6. Domestic Caution: With elections approaching, the government sought to avoid legal and diplomatic complexities.

So, What Changed in 2025?

The suspension in 2025 wasn’t a knee-jerk reaction. It was a calculated and long-prepared move.

1. Global Support: Pakistan is now widely recognized for harboring terror groups, strengthening India’s global position.
2. Legal Preparation: India notified the World Bank in 2023 about treaty disputes, making the 2025 move pre-informed.
3. Technical Readiness: India has completed major dam projects (Kishanganga, Ratle), enabling control over river flow.
4. Economic Weakness of Pakistan: Pakistan’s financial crisis limits its ability to legally challenge India or gather global support.
5. Political Climate in India: A stable government with a firm national security stance, and the “water for terror” narrative has gained traction.

What Does India Gain by Suspending the Treaty?

• Strategic Pressure: Water control becomes a diplomatic and military tool.
• Domestic Support: The move is popular with the public and aligns with India’s security-first policy.
• Global Messaging: Shows India is no longer bound by old frameworks in the face of repeated attacks.

What Does Pakistan Lose?

• Water Security Threatened: Over 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on Indus river water.
• Legal and Diplomatic Challenges: Difficult to fight back in court or global forums given its own record.
• Loss of Leverage: One of the few remaining “trust-based” pacts between the two nations is now in question.

What About Other India-Pakistan Agreements?

India and Pakistan have several agreements beyond IWT:

1. Simla Agreement (1972):
   • Purpose: Bilateral dispute resolution framework post-1971 war.
   • If Suspended: May open LoC issues to internationalization — risky for both sides.
2. Tashkent Agreement (1966):
   • Purpose: Post-1965 war peace deal.
   • If Suspended: Mostly symbolic today.
3. Agreement on Prohibition of Attacks on Nuclear Installations (1988):
   • Purpose: Both countries notify each other of nuclear facilities.
   • If Suspended: Suspending it may raise nuclear war risk perception.
4. Cross-Border Trade & Visa Agreements:
   • Purpose: Limited people-to-people & goods movement.
   • If Suspended: Suspension already partially in place; full block would further isolate people.

Final Takeaway

The Indus Waters Treaty remained a relic of peace even when peace itself was fragile. In 2019, the risks were too high — legally, diplomatically, and technically. In 2025, those risks have been managed, and the strategic timing aligned.

India’s message is loud and clear: terrorism will now cost more than just diplomatic disapproval — it may cost lifelines like water.