Mexico’s 2024 election results offer a unique case study for the global left. While far-right politics has gained traction in many parts of the world, Mexico saw the governing left-wing party, Morena, not only retain the presidency but also secure a supermajority in the lower house. This success, built on addressing Mexico’s deep-seated inequality, has sparked interest among progressives globally. However, Morena’s approach also incorporates elements that might give others pause.
Morena’s Winning Formula
Morena’s triumph, initially seen with Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s historic 2018 victory and reinforced by Claudia Sheinbaum’s recent win, hinges on a powerful populist narrative. López Obrador effectively framed the nation’s problems as a consequence of corrupt elites, encompassing traditional political parties and their business allies. This message resonated deeply in a country where income inequality is stark, with a significant portion of wealth concentrated at the very top. López Obrador’s charisma and long political career lent credibility to his promises of change. His extensive outreach through national tours and daily press conferences (“mañaneras”) allowed him to directly communicate his government’s achievements and critique his opponents, shaping the media landscape. This message was further amplified through state and social media, fostering a strong personal following.
Crucially, Morena delivered on some key promises. The minimum wage was doubled in real terms, social programs and cash transfers were expanded, and measures were taken to regulate worker outsourcing and democratize union contracts. Infrastructure projects were also prioritized in historically marginalized southern regions. These policies contributed to a notable decrease in the poverty rate between 2018 and 2022.
Far-Right’s Failure to Launch
In stark contrast to Morena’s success, the far right in Mexico failed to gain any significant traction. Eduardo Verástegui, a figure attempting to import a Trumpian brand of politics centered on religious conservatism, gun rights, and individualism, couldn’t even gather the necessary signatures to appear on the ballot. This suggests that a direct transplantation of American far-right ideology did not resonate within the Mexican context.
Caveats for Global Left
While Morena’s focus on socioeconomic justice offers valuable lessons, progressives elsewhere should approach replicating their model with caution. López Obrador’s government, while achieving some progressive goals, also made pragmatic shifts to the right. These included making deals with big business, sidestepping significant tax reform, maintaining fiscal austerity, and adopting a tough stance on US-bound migrants for political leverage. The party also avoided taking clear stances on issues like gay marriage and abortion, seemingly to maintain broader appeal. Furthermore, López Obrador embraced the military, a popular but controversial institution, to implement his agenda, overlooking its history of human rights abuses.
This pragmatism, while contributing to electoral success, has alienated some on the Mexican left, including feminists, environmentalists, and victims of violence. The influx of politicians with questionable backgrounds into Morena, driven by electoral expediency, has also created internal tensions.
Mexico’s Unique Landscape
Ultimately, the extent to which the global left can learn from Mexico is limited by the country’s unique historical and social context. Mexico’s colonial past, prolonged one-party rule, the significant influence of organized crime, and its deep economic dependence on the United States have shaped a distinct political landscape. The strong sense of injustice stemming from this history serves as a powerful mobilizing force.
A Complex Picture
Mexico’s political trajectory under Morena is not a simple story of the left triumphing over the right. It is a more nuanced narrative of a left-leaning party achieving significant electoral success by prioritizing socioeconomic justice and effectively mobilizing a populist base. However, this success has been intertwined with pragmatic, and at times right-leaning, compromises. Progressives outside Mexico must carefully consider which aspects of Morena’s approach align with their values and contexts, recognizing that electoral victories can sometimes come at the cost of ideological purity.
