On March 31, 2025, the head of France’s far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) party, Marine Le Pen, was convicted by a French court for stealing European Union (EU) money, a decision with significant repercussions for her political career, that of her party, and the 2027 French presidential election.
The Case Against Le Pen
The case is a result of an investigation that uncovered Le Pen and other members of the RN allegedly abusing EU funds intended for parliamentary assistants. Between 2004 and 2016, the RN hired people who were officially registered as assistants to French Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), but these people worked mostly for the RN in France and not in Brussels. This allocation of EU funds, meant to support parliamentary activity, actually funded party business, a clear violation of EU regulations.
The scam came to light when the European Parliament raised eyebrows in 2015, prompting both the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) and French officials to investigate. It was established that more than €4 million had been embezzled. The scandal implicated not just Le Pen but 25 other RN members, all of whom were charged with redirecting funds from their parliamentary positions to benefit the party’s operations.
Le Pen’s defense maintained that parliamentary assistants usually participate in political activities outside their work in Parliament, but the court found that the practice was unlawful because it contravened EU regulations, which require that public money be used solely for its intended purpose.
The Verdict and Sentencing
Le Pen was sentenced to two years of house arrest, a two-year suspended sentence, and a €100,000 fine. In addition, the court issued a five-year ban on her from holding any public office, effectively barring her from running in the 2027 presidential election. The decision has been a huge blow to her political career and has questioned the future of the RN.
Le Pen has promised to appeal the judgment, protesting her innocence and stating the trial was politically motivated. But the conviction may mar her reputation as a political outsider who defies the establishment, one of the aspects of her popular appeal with voters.
Effect on the National Rally
The arrest of Le Pen results in a leadership crisis for the RN. For years, she has been the party’s leader, steering it from the fringes of French politics to a major force in national elections. Her absence from the 2027 presidential election leaves the party looking for a new leader who can carry on her populist cause.
Le Pen’s deputy, Jordan Bardella, and now president of the RN, is generally regarded as the party’s most probable successor. But less prominent and with less personal magnetism than Le Pen, he might not be able to draw the same enthusiasm from voters. Even though he has appealed for calm mobilization against the court’s ruling, numerous people in the RN fear that the party would lose steam if Le Pen’s strong leadership is taken away from it.
Reactions from the Political Spectrum
The guilty verdict has occasioned polarised responses throughout French politics. At one end, hard-right political leaders such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Italian politician Matteo Salvini have welcomed Le Pen as a victim of a politically charged assault. Orbán shared a message of support on social media, and Salvini condemned the ruling as a move to suppress a nationalist voice in Europe.
Meanwhile, centrist and left-wing politicians welcomed the conviction as a win for transparency and accountability in politics. French President Emmanuel Macron chose not to directly comment on the verdict, instead speaking to his own dedication to ethical leadership. Most in the political elite think the conviction points up the importance of preventing the abuse of taxpayers’ money and underlining the fact that nobody, no matter their level of political clout, is above the law.
The 2027 Presidential Election
Le Pen’s uneligibility for the presidential election of 2027 changes the complexion of the contest. Her absence can leave the door open to other political forces, namely those cast as alternatives to the populist, anti-establishment narrative espoused by Le Pen. Though Bardella is the strongest candidate to assume the mantle for the RN, whether he can consolidate the party and project the same attractiveness as Le Pen is far from certain.
Meanwhile, the RN’s account of political persecution might strike a chord with its base, particularly among voters who are alienated from mainstream political elites. If the RN is able to frame Le Pen’s conviction as part of a larger assault on populist movements, it might mobilize support and continue to be a strong opposition force.
But the conviction also provides opportunity for other opposition candidates from the entire spectrum of politics to tap into voters disillusioned with the far-right. Macron’s centrist party or the left can take advantage of the RN’s internal conflict and the unfavorable fallout from the conviction and reverse the power in the election.