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India-Pak Tensions: What Lies Next After Ceasefire Violation by Pakistan? | TDG Explainer

After the India-Pakistan ceasefire agreement, the focus now shifts to future military talks and diplomatic efforts. Despite tensions, residents at the border hope for peace, while US President Trump encourages trade and collaboration to resolve the Kashmir issue.

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India-Pak Tensions: What Lies Next After Ceasefire Violation by Pakistan? | TDG Explainer

Over the last few weeks, a chain of events that could turn out to be fateful has passed between India and Pakistan, ending with a declaration of ceasefire between the two countries. From the horrifying terror strike in Pahalgam to the Operation Sindoor by India and the ensuing armed confrontations, tensions have remained running high.  With the ceasefire in place now, one cannot help but speculate what the future holds for the region.

Here’s a timeline of events that took place leading to the ceasefire:

The Pahalgam Terror Attack

On April 22, there was a terror strike in Baisaran near Pahalgam of Jammu and Kashmir, in which 26 people lost their lives, most of them being tourists.Among the killed were 25 Indians and one Nepali national. The attack caused outrage all over India, particularly given Pakistan’s later ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC). The Resistance Front, a Lashkar-e-Taiba proxy organization, took responsibility for the attack.

India’s Responds with Operation Sindoor

In retaliation for the Pahalgam terror strike, India launched “Operation Sindoor” on May 7, striking terror camps across Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). The operation, involving all three Indian military services, left nine terror camps destroyed. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has asserted that over 100 terrorists were killed in the operation.

Pakistan responded with heavy artillery fire and shelling across the LoC, resulting in heavy cross-border exchanges. Indian forces, employing advanced weapons like Rafale jets, S-400 air defence systems, and Barak 8 missiles, pushed back these attacks.A number of border areas, such as Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Gujarat’s Kutch district, were placed under blackout orders as the military tensions rose.

The Ceasefire Announcement

During increased tensions, a sudden report from US President Donald Trump confirmed that India and Pakistan had agreed to a “full and immediate ceasefire.” The report was after hectic diplomatic negotiations, and the two nations had agreed to stop all firing and armed activities across land, air, and sea.

On Saturday evening, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced that Pakistan’s Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) had called his Indian counterpart to ratify the ceasefire. According to Misri, the agreement would be in force at 5:00 pm IST. Later, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Sar reaffirmed Pakistan’s adherence to the ceasefire and highlighted the country’s long-standing quest for peace in the region.

US President Trump’s Role

On Sunday morning, US President Donald Trump praised the India-Pakistan ceasefire. Trump congratulated both countries for trying to make the deal and promised to enhance trade with them. Also, he vowed to work towards a solution to the Kashmir problem, stating, “While not even discussed, I am going to greatly increase trade with both of these great Nations. Also, I will work with you both to determine if, after a ‘thousand years,’ a solution can be reached regarding Kashmir.”

Pakistan Violates Ceasefire

Even after the ceasefire agreement, Pakistan breached the agreement within hours. Cross-border shelling and drone strikes in some areas were reported, such as Barmer in Rajasthan and Baramulla in Jammu and Kashmir. India condemned the violation by Pakistan and Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri spoke on the violation, urging Pakistan to take necessary measures to avoid similar incidents.

Indian troops were ordered to react sharply to any more violations and keep a sharp eye on the border. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s foreign office asserted that it was upholding the ceasefire but blamed India for starting violations.

Temporary Peace

In spite of the ceasefire breach, the atmosphere cooled down as there was no overnight military activity reported. Blackout orders were rescinded, and peace descended upon the areas affected by Sunday morning. The temporary peace brought relief to border residents, but they were wary because they knew that tensions could flare up again.

While border residents breathed a sigh of relief after the announcement of the ceasefire, they were also guarded. Locals and vendors in areas such as Attari, Punjab, and Hussainwala were optimistic but did caution that vigilance was still needed. “We hope to go back to work in fields,” said Gurnam Singh, a local political leader, adding that the atmosphere was still sensitive despite the ceasefire.

So, What’s Next?

With the ceasefire in place, the world now awaits the next round of talks between India and Pakistan’s DGMOs, which will be held on May 12 at 12:00 pm IST. This will be a turning point for both countries to agree to the continued cessation of hostilities and to decide on any issues concerning the violations. For now, the world holds its breath, hoping for more de-escalation and resolution.