India has launched an advanced weather prediction system named the Bharat Forecasting System (BFS). The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) unveiled the system in Delhi on May 26. Developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), BFS will now be used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), starting from this monsoon season.

This launch came at a crucial time, as Kerala and Mumbai were anglready experiencing early and intense monsoon showers.

BFS Offers High-Resolution Forecasts

The Bharat Forecasting System stands out for its high resolution. In fact, it uses two powerful models:

A global model with a resolution of 12 kilometers
A regional model that zooms in to 2 kilometers

Because of this resolution, which is among the highest in operational forecasting, BFS can better predict extreme weather events across India.

BFS Uses Modern, Coupled Weather Models

Importantly, the BFS combines data from the atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice. It uses dynamic forecasting models like the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Unified Model (UM). These models work together to improve the accuracy of both global and local weather predictions.

More Accurate and Detailed Forecasts

The new system significantly boosts the accuracy of forecasts for:

Cyclones
Heavy rainfall
Heatwaves and cold waves
Air quality

BFS provides reliable forecasts for 7 to 10 days. Moreover, it enables impact-based forecasting, which helps predict not only what the weather will be, but also what it will do—such as flooding or effects on crops.

BFS Has Wide Applications

Various sectors will benefit from this technology. These include:

Agriculture and irrigation
Disaster response
Aviation and shipping
Urban planning
Health and safety advisories

IITM Highlights Better Resolution

While speaking to ThePrint, IITM Director Suryachandra Rao explained the improvement by saying that “the new BFS has a resolution of 6 km at the tropics and around 7–8 km resolution at the poles,” whereas the older system had only around 12 km. According to him, this change will “remarkably improve our forecasting accuracy.”

For comparison, systems in the U.S., U.K., and Europe use models that range between 9 km and 14 km in resolution.

Union Minister Praises BFS

Union Minister Jitendra Singh praised BFS as a “first-of-its-kind, state-of-the-art” weather forecasting system. On X, he said that the system will help track monsoons, assist with aviation, and support disaster management.

He also emphasized that BFS will serve India’s rural areas more effectively, stating that its “exclusive highlight is that it focuses and caters to India’s panchayat level requirements.”

Scientists Introduce Special Grid for Better Forecasts

IITM scientists have created a version of the GFS model for India using a triangular-cubic-octahedral (Tco) grid. This grid system helps capture finer details, especially over tropical regions, at about 6.5 km resolution.

As per PTI, MoES Secretary M. Ravichandran pointed out that “the tropical region is a chaotic region for weather” and added that “higher resolution models are required to capture the spatial changes.” He further noted that earlier, “we used to issue one forecast for four villages,” but now, BFS will allow them “to issue separate forecasts for each of the four villages.”

BFS Runs on New Supercomputer ‘Arka’

Notably, BFS relies on the powerful supercomputer Arka, installed at IITM in 2023. Arka has a computing speed of 11.77 petaflops and can store 33 petabytes of data.

In comparison, the earlier system ‘Pratyush’ took up to 10 hours to process a forecast model. According to scientist Mukhopadhyay, Arka completes the same task in just four hours.

Doppler Radars Will Boost Local Accuracy

Currently, BFS collects data from 40 Doppler weather radars across India. These radars help deliver nowcasts, or short-term forecasts for the next two hours. Ravichandran shared that the ministry plans to raise this number to 100 radars, which will enable nowcasts nationwide.

Why BFS Matters Now

India is witnessing more unpredictable and extreme weather events due to climate change. Therefore, a system like BFS is timely and crucial. It has already shown promising results during trial runs since 2022.

According to reports, BFS has improved:

Extreme rainfall prediction by 30%
Forecasts in core monsoon areas by 64%
Cyclone tracking and intensity forecasts

Ravichandran described this progress as significant, stating, “This is a pretty big improvement, but we will not stop at that. Our efforts will be to continuously better our capabilities.”