How Ukraine’s Drone Strikes Rattled Putin’s Military Machine | TDG Explainer

Ukraine launched a surprise drone operation called Operation Spider Web on June 1. The mission followed 18 months of careful planning. Ukraine used 117 drones to strike deep into Russian territory. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the result as “absolutely brilliant.”

As a result, dozens of Russian aircraft were damaged. Ukraine estimated the total damage at $7 billion. Some have called the attack “Russia’s Pearl Harbor.”

Drones Target Multiple Russian Airbases

To carry out the mission, Ukraine smuggled drones into Russia and hid them in freight trucks. Then, operators launched them remotely from four different locations across the country.

The drones struck airfields in five Russian regions, covering five time zones. Notably, one airbase in Irkutsk, located over 2,600 miles from the front line, marked Ukraine’s deepest strike into Russia so far.

According to Ukrainian officials, the drones hit 41 aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers as well as an A-50 radar plane. These aircraft had been used to bomb Ukrainian cities. Ukraine claimed it had destroyed 34% of Russia’s strategic bombers.

Experts Say Russia Will Struggle to Recover

Moreover, Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said on Telegram that Russia’s losses were serious. He wrote, “The extent of the damage is such that the Russian military-industrial complex, in its current state, is unlikely to be able to restore them in the near future.”

He also pointed out that the loss of the Tu-95, Tu-22, and Tu-160 bombers would hurt Russia’s ability to continue long-range attacks.

Russia Challenges Ukraine’s Claims

However, Russia disputed Ukraine’s version of events. Some Russian military bloggers said the damage was far less. For instance, the influential blogger Rybar reported only 13 aircraft were damaged, including up to 12 bombers.

Nevertheless, analysts say that even partial confirmation of Ukraine’s claims suggests a major shift in the war’s economics. Striking high-value assets deep inside Russia shows Ukraine’s growing strength.

Psychological Blow to Moscow

At the same time, experts agree that the attack delivered a major psychological blow to Russia. Lt. Gen. Ihor Romanenko, a former deputy chief of Ukraine’s general staff, told Al Jazeera, “This is a slap on the face for Russia, for FSB, for Putin.”

Similarly, Sven Biscop, a security expert at the Egmont Institute in Brussels, told NBC News, “At a time when Putin seems to think that he is winning on the battlefield, this demonstrates that his forces are in fact very vulnerable.” He added, “This may not change the course of the war, but it does mean that every gain Russia makes will be at high cost.”

In addition, Ukraine showed it can strike Russia’s key infrastructure. Since Russia depends on oil and gas facilities, experts say future drone attacks could hit its economy hard.

Operation Strengthens Ukraine’s Diplomatic Position

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy believes the strikes will push Russia towards negotiations. He said the operation proved that Russia is vulnerable.

As a result, Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta think tank, told Al Jazeera, “Emotionally, psychologically and politically, the operation strengthens the positions of Ukrainian negotiators.” He also said the attack sent a clear message: Ukraine “won’t give up, won’t capitulate.”

Ukraine Also Sends Message to Washington

Importantly, the operation also appeared to send a message to the United States. On Monday, the White House confirmed it had not received advance notice from Ukraine.

Commenting on this, George Beebe, a former CIA Russia expert, told Foreign Policy that Ukraine was pressuring the US to act tougher. “In fact, after this operation, Zelenskyy made a public statement saying that it is urgently important that the US toughen sanctions on Russia—that’s the only way that Russia will come to the negotiating table,” he said. “So, I think the [Ukrainians’] target audience for this operation was here in Washington, not in Russia.”

What Happens Next?

Despite the strike, many analysts say it likely won’t change Putin’s war strategy. So far, the Kremlin shows no sign of backing down.

However, tensions have clearly increased. Some pro-Russian voices are calling for harsh retaliation. Russian military blogger Roman Alekhin wrote on Telegram, “We hope that the response will be the same as the US response to the attack on Pearl Harbor, or even tougher.”

Now, the world watches to see what Russia does next.