Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, once seen as politically finished, is now leading the results in Canada’s federal election. Although it’s still uncertain if they will form a majority, their comeback marks a major shift in Canadian politics. Carney, a former central banker with no prior political experience, used U.S. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric as a rallying point to frame himself as Canada’s defender.
Trump’s threats to impose global tariffs—particularly on foreign car imports—and his remarks challenging Canadian sovereignty dominated voter concerns. Mark Carney capitalized on this anxiety by positioning himself as a bulwark against U.S. interference.
He warned, “Trump wants to break us so America can own us.” This message resonated with many voters, especially progressives who feared economic dependence on the U.S.
In contrast, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre focused his campaign on inflation, unaffordable housing, and crime. He rarely mentioned Trump, hoping to shift attention to domestic frustrations. However, the public mood was largely shaped by foreign tensions.
Kevin O’Leary, a Canadian businessman and Trump ally, said Carney’s strategy was effective: “He was able to distract Canadians from his own mistakes… and say ‘Stop looking at that. Look south of the border and I can save you’.”
Who Is Mark Carney, and Why Is His Rise So Remarkable?
Mark Carney’s entry into politics was sudden and unconventional. At the beginning of 2025, he had never run for public office. Carney was widely respected for his work as governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. But he had no direct political experience.
Everything changed in January when Justin Trudeau abruptly resigned. Carney quickly took the opportunity to run for Liberal leadership and won overwhelmingly. By March, he was sworn in as prime minister—becoming the first in Canada’s history to take the role without ever holding elected office.
He used his background in finance and crisis management to reassure voters during a time of economic uncertainty. When Trump made a surprise tariff announcement in March, Carney paused his campaign, held calls with U.S. officials, and presented himself as a steady leader during crisis.
Did the Conservatives Improve Their Performance?
Yes—but not enough to win. The Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre gained around 41% of the national vote, surpassing the 39.6% they had when they won a majority in 2011.
They are projected to secure about 149 seats, up from 120 prior to the election. Still, this strong showing wasn’t enough to beat the Liberals, who benefited from the progressive vote coalescing around Carney.
This result is a tough blow for the Conservatives, who just months ago seemed likely to win. The party now faces internal questions—especially about whether Poilievre, their third leader since 2015, should remain at the helm.
What Happened to the NDP and Other Smaller Parties?
The election was particularly harsh on smaller parties, especially the New Democratic Party (NDP). Their national vote share collapsed from 18% in 2021 to just 5%. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh lost his seat in British Columbia and announced his resignation.
“Obviously I know this night is a disappointing night for New Democrats,” Singh said. “We’re only defeated if we stop fighting.”
The Green Party’s support also dropped, from 2% to 1%. The Bloc Québécois retained about 8% of the vote, but it’s still unclear how many seats they’ll hold.
Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, said that Trump’s aggressive rhetoric played a key role in shaping voter behavior. “The threats, the annexation talk, all of that has been a huge motivator for left of centre voters,” she told the BBC.
What Comes Next for Canada’s Government?
Canada’s Parliament includes more than just two dominant parties, and historically, smaller groups like the NDP and Bloc have held significant sway—sometimes even serving as the Official Opposition. However, this election has shown a shift toward strategic voting, particularly among center-left Canadians who chose to back the Liberals in the face of external threats.
If Carney leads a minority government, he will need to negotiate with other parties to pass legislation. His immediate goal, as promised, is to redefine Canada’s relationship with the United States—a relationship he says is entering a “new phase.”
This election has highlighted how international tensions, especially involving powerful neighbors like the U.S., can deeply influence domestic political outcomes. Carney now faces the task of transforming campaign rhetoric into effective governance while keeping Canadians’ trust.
