India’s move to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) as a retaliatory measure for the Pahalgam attack has evoked a strong reaction from Pakistan. This action has enraged Pakistani leaders such as PPP chief Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, who announced Pakistan as the actual custodian of the Indus civilization. He threatened India, stating, “either their water will flow in the Sindh or else Indians’ blood will flow through it.”
Pakistan’s Minister Hanif Abbasi escalated tension by warning India of nuclear strike. According to him, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, which houses Ghori, Shaheen, and Ghaznavi missiles as well as 130 nuclear warheads, is ‘only for India’. Abbasi further cautioned that if water supply is cut in case of stopping the IWT, Pakistan will attack and declare war.
The Indus Waters Treaty
India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) announced the treaty’s indefinite suspension on Wednesday, after a terrorist attack in Pahalgam killed 26 individuals. It is suspected that the Resistance Front (TRF), a splinter group of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba group, conducted the attack. India’s notification to suspend the IWT formally attributes the action to Pakistan’s continued cross-border terrorism.
The Indus Waters Treaty, ratified in 1960 by India and Pakistan with the World Bank as an additional signatory, is meant to share the waters of the Indus system equitably. India controls the waters of the three ‘Eastern Rivers’—Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej, while Pakistan controls the three ‘Western Rivers’—Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum. The treaty also provides for incidental use of the rivers of the other country for specific uses, like small hydroelectric projects.
In 2019, following the Pulwama terror attack, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had apparently said, “blood and water can’t flow together,” but India had not taken this step at that point.
Immediate Impact
Pakistan’s agriculture is highly dependent on the Indus basin, and at least 80% of its agricultural requirements are based on the river system. A disruption in water supply would be disastrous, with possible consequences of crop failures, food insecurity, inflation, and major economic losses. Agriculture accounts for approximately 20% of Pakistan’s GDP and provides employment to about 40% of the population.
In addition, Pakistan’s power generation through hydroelectricity, dependent upon dams like Tarbela and Mangla, is threatened. Lower water flow would add to Pakistan’s prevailing energy crisis and cause power shortages and disruptions in economic activity.
Hidden Effects of Suspension
Apart from the self-evident economic and agricultural impacts, the imposition of the IWT suspension has two covert effects. Firstly, India is no longer obligated to notify Pakistan on any work conducted on the three rivers. Previously, India would have to provide at least six months’ notice, which generally resulted in protests from Pakistan on trivial matters. This newfound freedom permits India to introduce new technology for dam-building and water storage.
The second, psychological effect is the change in perception of water management. Pakistan now knows that India can release or hold back water without notice, which can have a serious impact on Pakistan’s crop season. This manipulation of water flow can have a significant influence on Pakistan’s agricultural production, further increasing the strain on its resources.
