The astonishing military victory of the Taliban over the Afghan nationalist forces in just a matter of one week has huge ramifications that could disturb the peace in the region for a long time. To begin with, it would ensure that Ashraf Ghani steps down to pave the way for a Taliban-sponsored regime, which may have as its head someone from within this terror outfit. The immediate concern for New Delhi should be that it should without any further delay evacuate all Indian nationals from this troubled area and also put into action any contingency plan which could have been drawn out by our foreign office and intelligence agencies.
The fall of Afghanistan is also a saga of betrayal by the American forces and total miscalculation by their intelligence agencies over the capability of the government there to hang out and resist the assault from insurgents grouped under the banner of Taliban and to a large extent, trained and inspired by Pakistan. The Doha negotiations being held under the watchful eyes of the Americans may not have any sanctity since those who are part of the insurgency have not honoured their word in the past. For instance, when they asked the National Army to surrender about a week ago in one of the provinces, the soldiers were butchered in cold blood without giving them any respite. The Afghan national forces have lost the will to fight after a clear message has come from many of their officers that the political support that was required was lacking.
The swiftness with which the Americans have abandoned their bases, without even allowing for a proper handing over, has also surprised Afghanistan watchers. The assurance of providing air cover to the national army was never fulfilled and to expect the Afghan Air Force to carry out sorties was something which was beyond all anticipation. The Russians, Chinese, and Pakistanis have been active in the region and the Taliban is not without support. Dr Abdullah Abdullah, who was negotiating on their behalf is back in Kabul and it is possible that the capital may formally fall to the Taliban as early as possible. New Delhi has taken a decision not to close down its embassy in the capital because it needs to keep its presence there.
The Taliban have promised that they would not be harming the diplomats and civilians but that is something which cannot be believed. It could be a repeat of the dark days when the Soviet-supported president, Najib was pulled out from the UN office and tortured and brutalised before being hung at a traffic crossing signal many years ago. A similar fate awaits many of those who were loyal to the Americans but now find themselves totally betrayed. In fact, it is the end of the Republic of Afghanistan which shall soon be replaced by some regime that would certainly put in something Islamic as a part of the description of the new government. The Indian establishment has many lessons to learn from its Afghan policy and must immediately review the situation to make amends. There are troubled times ahead.