The surge in terrorist violence in Kashmir valley is in direct proportion to the frustration of the Pakistani military establishment over the normalisation of the situation in the union territory. Post the revocation of Article 370, the merchants of doom and gloom had made dire predictions about a conflagration in the valley, making it a security nightmare for India. They had talked about the return of the months-long unrests that were seen in the past—in fact something much worse. But much to their dismay, nothing like that happened. In spite of some initial serious security curbs, there was no major trouble that could not be handled by the administration, without the use of excessive force. A little more than two years after the revocation of Article 370, the valley seems calmer, and on its way back to normalcy. The tourism industry, one of the mainstays of J&K has started coming back to life, with tourists from the rest of the country flocking to the valley. Stone pelting incidents have seen a drastic decline. Ministry of Home Affairs statistics in August 2021 show a decline of 88% between January and July 2021 compared to the same period in 2019. Injuries to security forces and civilians in related incidents—including injuries caused to civilians by baton charges and pellet guns—too have come down by 84% and 93%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2019. The improvement in the law and order situation has been largely possible because of the presence of the security forces, some Covid related restrictions and action against separatist leaders and terrorist outfits. Although the UT is yet to witness Assembly elections, the District Development Council elections held last year saw unprecedented participation from the residents. Make no mistake, arriving at a certain state of normalcy would not have been possible but for the common Kashmiri’s desire for peace and willingness to lead a normal life. The security forces too have achieved unprecedented success in eliminating the Pakistan backed terrorist leadership in the valley. In fact every attempt by Pakistan to groom such a leadership has ended in failure, with the security forces eliminating them in a matter of months. It is in this context that Pakistan’s frustration has to be seen.
This has led to a change in strategy in perpetrating “lone wolf” attacks on the minority population of the valley, with radicalised youngsters being given small arms to carry out targeted killings. This has led to some migration by the Pandit population from the valley, however it would be wrong to compare the situation with the 1990s. The security forces are way too alert now for letting these terrorist elements get away with murder. Also, the toxicity in the milieu against the local minority population seems to have subsided to a large extent. There is greater integration of the valley population with the rest of the country as well. And the more interaction increases, more mainstream Kashmir becomes. Hence, there is reason for hope, in spite of the sudden spurt in incidents of terrorist violence. Of course, the security forces are paying a heavy price to secure J&K from the Pakistan-backed malignancy, as the recent incident in Jammu’s Poonch where five Army personnel were killed, showed. Also with the possibility of Pakistan diverting its pet terrorists operating in Afghanistan to its eastern border, adding to the ranks of the Laskhar-e-Tayyabas and Hizbul Mujahideens, it will need 24×7 vigil by the security forces to keep the situation under control. Hence, the message needs to sink in that picking up the gun will not give any returns. As the Army has been saying, anyone picking up the gun will be eliminated inside a matter of months.
At the same time, the ground should be prepared for an elected government to take charge of the union territory, for that is the best way to give voice to people’s aspirations and listen to their grievances. There is no reason to believe that the attacks of the last few days mark the beginning of a prolonged period of unrest in Kashmir. Hence, it is time Pakistan and its proxies in the valley accepted the reality of Article 370 being history and allowed peace to prevail.