What will happen in 2025?

Political analysts also state Nitish Kumar is attempting to play into his national ambitions by stepping aside from state politics. However, Kumar himself has said that he will not be contesting for the position of Chief Minister or Prime Minister and his only goal is to help defeat the BJP in the 2024 national elections. Overall, there has been a huge erosion in the JD(U)’s core voter base, especially amongst non-Yadav OBCs and Mahadalits, in addition to the loss of support amongst upper castes, after the party’s split with the BJP.

Although the RJD lost the 2020 election without the support of the JD(U), analysts and commentators took note of Yadav’s rise to prominence as a youth leader, in particular to the tough challenge the party was able to give the NDA, despite its loss. Especially noteworthy is the fact that Yadav broadened the RJD’s electoral base and appeal beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav (MY factor) base in the state, to focus on a call for economic justice. His campaign focused on issues of development and unemployment rampant in the state, which appealed to a lot of voters. If the 2025 polls are likely to turn into a contest between the BJP and the RJD, the BJP will have to cater to the changing political climate in the state, where caste equations currently continue to favour the grand alliance. However, the BJP’s election machinery and brand Modi, including its poll planks of development are likely to also give tough competition to the Mahagathbandhan in the state