KERALA 2021: WILL LEFT FRONT BREAK STATE’S ANTI-INCUMBENCY CYCLE?

With the announcement of election dates in West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry, national and state parties across the country have begun campaigning extensively. The Assembly election in Kerala scheduled to be held on 6 April, is going to be a two-pronged contest between the incumbent Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). Traditionally, while the state has never had the same government re-elected to power for two terms, it would seem that the incumbent LDF has an edge as the elections inch closer. While the state continues to deal with the Coronavirus pandemic, both the incumbent government and Chief Minister continue to enjoy high approval ratings. However, news of the gold smuggling scandal, the backdoor appointments in government departments and various religious issues, such as the Sabarimala issue and the issue of the Malankara Orthodox Syrian Church are likely to affect both the alliances’ chances of victory.

Out of the 5 poll-bound states/UTs, Kerala is the only state where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which had only managed to secure one seat in the 2016 Assembly election, is likely not to make an impact this year as well. However, the BJP, much like it did in West Bengal in 2016, is not contesting in Kerala to win, but rather to prepare their cadre base and on-ground machinery with their eye on the 2026 Assembly elections.