The NFL Playoffs are here! Some NFL fans may feel a little sad knowing their team’s season, and others feel excited as their favorite team is making a run at the Lombardi Trophy. Either what, whether your team is at home or making a run toward the Super Bowl, we get another few weeks to watch the greatest sport in the world as well as try to make a few extra bucks before it’s all over.
If you are new to the gambling world and looking into betting on the NFL playoffs, you have come to the right place. Below we have outlined the best ways to bet on the NFL playoffs.
Before betting on the NFL Playoffs, we need to know how they work.
14 teams will make the NFL playoffs in 2022, compared to 12 previous years. This will mark the second season of the NFL’s 14-team playoff format.
Now, seven teams from the AFC and seven from the NFC will make the postseason. Under the NFL’s new format, 43.75 percent of the league’s teams will be involved in postseason play. Division winners will still be seeded 1-4 by the record, with the final three spots being filled by Wild Card teams.
How does the NFL playoff bracket work
Teams are seeded according to the following criteria, with the higher-seeded teams always having home-field advantage:
Wild Card Round
The first round of the playoffs is called the Wild Card Round. The top-seeded division winner gets a bye from this round, and the remaining teams match up at seven vs. two, six vs. three, and five vs. four.
Divisional Round
The second round is known as the Division Round. It features the top division winners hosting the lowest seed remaining from the Wild Card Round and two remaining seeds facing off.
Conference Championship
The third round of the NFL playoffs is the Conference Championship Round to decide the AFC and NFC Championships. The winner of these two games will be heading to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl
The biggest game is the Super Bowl, where the AFC and NFC champions battle it out for the Lombardi Trophy.
Everyone is either watching or betting on the NFL playoffs, so overreactions can be a bit extreme week-to-week, especially after a blowout wins. Per Action Network, since 1980, teams are 6-25-1 ATS after scoring 40 more points the previous week during the playoffs.
This is very important come playoff time. Most of what happened on the regular season no longer matters when teams face off in the postseason. Sometimes it can be difficult to determine whether one team is “better” than the other. This is why matchups become even more important than usual. Compare offenses/defense, special teams, red zone offense/defense, and even coaching.
Experience should also come into play, so make sure you consider when analyzing matchups. Another trend given to us by Action Network, quarterbacks making their playoff debut against a quarterback with at least one previous postseason start under their belt has gone 14-30 straight up and 12-31-1 ATS since 2002. Guys with zero playoffs start in this year’s playoffs, including Mac Jones, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow.
The general public likes backing favorites in the regular season and the postseason, but that’s not always the best bet. Since 2003, regular-season underdogs have gone 2121-2086-131 ATS for a -1.4% Return on Investment (ROI), while postseason dogs have gone 95-76-4 ATS for a +8.6% ROI.
Just because there are fewer games weekly during the playoffs, that still doesn’t mean you need to bet every game. Continue going through each game and bet on the games that offer the best value. If you are new, maybe select one game per day throughout the weekend. With fewer games on the board, you still need to stay disciplined.
The top seeds from each conference are usually overvalued once seedings are set. Many people assume that they must be the best teams as they’ve got the best records. They also assume that they’ll benefit from an extra week off. That’s not always the case.
Since 2000 (20 NFL Seasons), only 8 top seeds have gone on to win the Super Bowl. And during that same timespan, 11 top-seeded teams lost in the Divisional Round.
Betting the Divisional and Conference Championship games can be misleading at first glance. This goes back to earlier in the article, where we don’t want to overreact to teams with blowout wins. Teams are just 6-25-1 ATS after scoring 40 or more points in the previous week. The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City scored over 40 points in this year’s Wild Card Round. Something to keep an eye on in their next matchup.
Heading into the Divisional Round, you want to pay attention to home-field advantage. Teams playing at home in the Divisional and Conference Championship Rounds are 48-18 SU (72.7%) combined.
There are sites like Safest Betting Sites that provide the most trusted online sportsbooks for the NFL Playoffs; make sure you take advantage of the bonuses and promotions that most of the sportsbooks have.
When betting on the NFL playoffs, after going through all the research and tips/trends, you cannot find an edge on a game, don’t bet it. Don’t feel like you have to bet every single playoff game. Sometimes the best bet is the bet you don’t make. Enjoy the 2022 NFL Playoffs.
Kurt Blakeway – Sporting Betting Analyst
Kurt is a Sports Betting Analyst for Safest Betting Sites. He enjoys all things MLB, NFL, CFB, and CBB. While he is a fan first, he is always trying to gain an edge on the books to make a little money.
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