Chennai Super Kings (CSK) find themselves on the brink of elimination in IPL 2025 after a disappointing run of form. With seven losses in their first nine games, including the latest defeat to Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) by five wickets, their playoff hopes seem dim. However, mathematically, MS Dhoni’s side still has a narrow path to sneak into the top four.

Here’s a close examination of what CSK needs to do in order to stay alive for the playoffs.

Winning All the Remaining Games Is Imperative

The most important and initial requirement for CSK is self-evident: they have to win all their remaining five games. The next games to be played by the Dhoni team are against Punjab Kings (PBKS), Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB), Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR), Rajasthan Royals (RR), and Gujarat Titans (GT).

If CSK win all five of their matches, they will be sitting on 14 points at the conclusion of the league stage. Although 14 points is not necessarily a playoff ticket, the past has proven that in certain IPL seasons, teams have made it to the knockouts with that number — as long as other results go in their favor.

Other Teams Need to Drop Crucial Matches

Even if CSK manage to achieve a five-match winning streak, their fate will not be completely in their control. They will need a lot of assistance from other teams to collapse in their campaigns.

KKR and SRH — teams that are currently residing in the lower half of the points table along with CSK — need to lose at least two to three more games each. This is important because both teams are direct rivals for the same playoff position CSK are aiming for.

In addition, Punjab Kings (PBKS) and Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) have to suffer bad runs in their subsequent games. Their falling behind in the table will increase the window for CSK’s qualification prospects.

Also, Mumbai Indians (MI) and Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) should not reach the 16-point mark prematurely. CSK requires a situation where several teams are stuck around 14 points, resulting in a “mid-table mess,” where the last standings are decided by Net Run Rate (NRR). CSK can only have a realistic chance then.

Improving Their Net Run Rate (NRR) Is Crucial

Whereas winning games is the fundamental condition, CSK also has to win those matches convincingly. Their NRR currently sits at a miserable -1.302 — IPL 2025’s worst.

In a situation where several teams are tied on 14 points, NRR becomes the decisive factor. “Small wins won’t be enough for CSK from here on,” the team management acknowledges. To offset their poor NRR, Dhoni’s men must secure huge victories — winning games by large margins to bring their NRR closer to positive territory.

Plain and simple, narrow victories won’t cut it. Only dominant performances will put CSK in the running for the points table mess that they so avidly desire.

Upcoming Matches to Watch Closely

The fate of CSK’s playoff chances also hinges on the results of several other key matches happening over the next few days. Here are some fixtures that CSK fans should keep a close eye on:

PBKS vs KKR (26 April)
LSG vs MI (27 April)
RR vs GT (28 April)
DC vs KKR (29 April)
PBKS vs CSK (30 April)

If above CSK teams keep beating each other, or there is a loss of one or two teams heavily, then it will raise the possibility of a lot of sides remaining at 14 points after the league stage.

In that case, the qualification for the playoffs would be about who has a better NRR — and if CSK are able to increase theirs sufficiently, they might just sneak into the fourth position.

Is It Probable or Merely Mathematical?

While the path is still clear, it is important to add that CSK’s road is very steep ahead. It’s tough enough to win five successive matches in any pressure tournament such as IPL. To top that, depending upon other teams not performing well puts an additional spanner in the works.

But stranger things have happened in the history of IPL. It has happened to teams before: they have been back from seemingly impossible positions before. For a team with their skipper-in-chief MS Dhoni, whose cool head will never give in, hope never dies until statistically it is beyond possibility.

Crowds across the globe will stay crossed-fingered as CSK gears up for what is potentially the ultimate Houdini act of IPL 2025.