Recognising the global health hazard posed by tobacco use, the World Health Organisation Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) became the inaugural global health treaty negotiated under WHO auspices.
Established in 2003, this treaty boasts participation from 182 countries and the EU, with only 11 WHO Member States abstaining.
This report analyses trends in tobacco use based on data collected from nationally representative population surveys conducted between 1990 and 2022, focusing on individuals aged 15 years and above. The dataset, finalised in February 2023, provides insights into tobacco prevalence across various parameters, including type, frequency, country, gender, age, and sample size.
The data informing the trend analysis in this report stem from nationally representative population-based surveys spanning the years 1990 to 2022. The focus of these statistics is on individuals aged 15 years and above.
For nations that do not routinely partake in the aforementioned surveys, endeavours were made by WHO regional offices and country offices to recognise independently conducted surveys within those countries. The data extracted from these national surveys are consolidated into a unified dataset, categorising prevalence by tobacco type, usage frequency, year, country, gender, age of respondents, and sample size. The dataset was finalised on February 1, 2023.
Overall, the worldwide objective for the entire population is anticipated to fall short of the overall global target of 18.4% by an absolute 1.3%. Instead of reaching the 30% relative reduction outlined in the NCD GAP by 2025, ongoing efforts are expected to result in a global prevalence of approximately 19.8% in 2025.
This represents a 25% relative reduction since 2010, with a 21% reduction among males and a 40% reduction among females. With the current annual absolute decline rate of 0.3%–0.4% per annum, achieving a 30% relative reduction from the 2010 prevalence is estimated to take an additional four years, extending until 2029.
In the year 2000, approximately half of men (49.1%) aged 15 years and older were active users of various forms of tobacco. Assuming that the intensity of tobacco control measures is sustained, the projected prevalence rate is expected to decrease to 32.9% by the year 2025 and further decline to 30.6% by 2030.
Despite the positive declines, these reductions are not sufficient to achieve the targeted 30% relative reduction by 2025, using 2010 as the baseline. In 2010, the male prevalence rate was 41.6%, necessitating a target rate of 29.1% by 2025. However, based on current trends, the projected prevalence indicates that males will fall short of this target by 3.8%.
In 2000, approximately one in six women (16.3%) aged 15 years and older were current users of some form of tobacco. The projection indicates a decline to 6.7% by 2025 and further to 5.7% by 2030. The anticipated prevalence in 2025 (6.7%) surpasses the 30% reduction target (7.8%) by an absolute 1.1%. It’s noteworthy that, based on existing data, a 30% reduction was already accomplished among women in 2021.
In 2000, the proportion of males using any form of tobacco was three times that of women users. However, by 2022, the rate for males had increased to more than four times the rate for females. This shift reflects the faster decline in prevalence among females. It is anticipated that this gap will continue to widen, reaching just over five times by 2030.
While commendable progress is evident, the pursuit of the global target for tobacco prevalence faces a modest setback, projecting a shortfall of 1.3%. Despite the challenges, the concerted global efforts signify a 25% relative reduction since 2010, a testament to the tireless endeavours aimed at curbing this health epidemic.
A notable gender shift unfolds, with a faster decline in tobacco prevalence among females, urging sustained measures to bridge emerging gaps. As the world strives for a smoke-free future, the journey continues, underlining the importance of persistent tobacco control initiatives and global collaboration to shape a healthier, tobacco-free tomorrow.