Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on a two-day visit to Samarkand of Uzbekistan to attend the 22nd Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, the first in-person SCO summit after 2019. The Beijing-headquartered SCO is a Eurasian economic, political, and security organization, which is also the world’s largest regional organization comprising 40% of the world population, more than 30% of the world’s GDP, and 60% of the Eurasia region. After the Samarkand summit, Iran will be admitted into the largest regional organization as the ninth member, whereas India and Pakistan joined the group in 2017. India will hold the organization’s presidency over the next year till September 2023. In this visit, Modi’s agenda will be to discuss the Taliban’s government, cross-border terrorism, regional cooperation for counter-terrorism, regional economic growth, and post-Covid regional trade.
Attending the Samarkand summit is Xi Jinping’s first foreign visit after 2019, and it’s a high-profile visit for Xi Jinping. Everything is set for his third term as the president, unprecedented for any top Chinese leader since 1990. On the sidelines of the summit, if Modi and Xi Jinping hold bilateral talks, then it would be the first meeting of two leaders after the India-China fallout in Ladakh in 2020. In the last two years, Chinese and Indian troops faced deadly skirmishes due to the Chinese intrusions in Sikkim and Ladakh. The two countries’ relations strained and led to the de-escalation situation in the border areas. Before the summit, two troops’ border disengagements took place at Gogra-Hot springs in Ladakh on 12 September. The meeting between the two leaders could help to reduce the tensions in the region. Modi may also show his concerns about China’s continuous support to the anti-India terror networks LeT and JeM at the United Nations. Modi also might meet Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi, elected in 2021. Iran is a crucial player for India in strengthening connectivity with central Asia through INSTC and the Chabahar port. Iran may also request India to purchase oil by ignoring the USA sanctions, similar to New Delhi’s oil deal with Russia. India has stopped buying oil from Iran since 2019. However, India has ignored the USA sanctions on Russia and has been purchasing oil at a discounted price from Russia.
Most of the SCO members are neighbours of Afghanistan and have a direct interest in the future of Afghanistan. Some of them are not on the same page regarding their approach toward the Taliban, but all have major stakes in Afghanistan. Pakistan, China, and Russia earlier supported Afghanistan’s shift, and some central Asian countries and India had preconditions for recognizing the Taliban regime. Last year, Central Asian countries witnessed refugees and drug trafficking after the Taliban’s capture of Afghanistan. Both Central Asia and India are facing the threat of terrorism, fundamentalism, and drug trafficking. Central Asia is facing newer narco-terrorism threats, which emanate from Afghanistan under Taliban rule. Taliban governance may also cause constant terror attacks in the central Asian region, and Islamic extremists may defeat the ruling governments inspired by the Taliban. Now, most of the countries in the organization are on the same page for the protection of the region. However, SCO should lead the talks with the Taliban and increase engagement with the Taliban for regional peace, stability, and connectivity. SCO also needs to pressure the Taliban to address the international concerns about inclusivity and rights of all Afghans, especially women’s rights, girls’ education, and minorities’ protection. India has been demanding an inclusive Taliban government with minorities and women for the last year. Russia, China, Pakistan, and some other SCO countries are engaging in relations with the Taliban’s regime. Recently, India opened its embassy in Kabul and gave indications for negotiations with the Taliban. Now India also needs to start negotiations with the Taliban and pressure the Taliban government for inclusivity. India should play a significant role in the summit for any country’s recognition, or any decision on the Taliban should be taken only after considering the global community.
After the USSR’s collapsed, Russia played a big brother role in central Asia for over a decade. China has initiated SCO, intending to increase its role in central Asia by accelerating trade and increasing support for infrastructure growth. Slowly, Russia is losing its grip on central Asia to China and becoming a junior partner in the Central Asian region. In fact, the Prospects of Russia’s Eurasian Economic Forum look faint against China’s SCO, Belt, and Road Initiative. Indeed, Russia cannot do anything about it. Still, Russia needs China to realize many of its goals, like an Infrastructure boost in the eastern part and to counter the west. China is trying to exploit Russia after the Ukraine war by purchasing oil for a low price and trying to expand its base in the arctic. The western threats to Russia and China were managed by their differences in central Asia and forced them to work together in the region.
The induction of Iran into SCO as a full member will help India push for more access to central Asia and Afghanistan. The Chabahar port is the gateway for Central Asia and Afghanistan.
India has a high trade priority with the energy rich Central Asian region. India’s trade with the Central Asian region is just USD 2 billion. On the other hand, China stands at USD 100 billion. New Delhi has announced a USD 1 billion line of credit for the infrastructure in the region. India needs to expand its support to the region for infrastructure development projects. Beijing has already invested more than USD 200 billion in the region under the Belt and Road Initiative. Central Asian countries are rich in minerals and hydroelectric resources. Kazakhstan has the world’s second-largest reserves of uranium and is the world’s largest producer. Uzbekistan has extensive reserves of gas, gold, and uranium. Turkmenistan has the fourth largest world reserves of gas.
The SCO summit helps both India and central Asia to pressure Pakistan and Afghanistan for better access to boost the trade in the region. If Pakistan can manage the differences with India by stopping the cross-border terrorism and really wants to come out of China’s trapped debt and severe economic crisis.
Then, Pakistan will have considerable room for economic and trade cooperation with India. Pakistan should stop its obduracy and allow its inland access to India to accelerate the trade growth in Central Asia, which is facing down-turn growth after the Pandemic and Russia-Ukraine crisis. Indeed, it helps Pakistan to overcome the economic crisis.
Venkata Krishna Rao is a Research Scholar, IIT Varanasi.