A Soviet Union-launched spacecraft, Kosmos 482, launched in 1972, originally meant for a mission to Venus, has instead found itself to enter Earth’s atmosphere after failing mid-flight. The 500 kg spacecraft has been stranded in Earth orbit for more than half a century and is projected to re-enter the planet uncontrolled on May 10, 2025.
Kosmos 482 was originally designed as a spherical capsule with a heat shield to withstand the harsh conditions of Venus. It suffered a malfunction, however, and it became stuck in orbit around the Earth, and scientists now cannot predict where it will crash and how much of it will be destroyed upon re-entry.
Potential Risk of Re-entry
Scientists such as Dutch researcher Marco Langbroek forecast the spacecraft to enter Earth’s atmosphere at velocities of about 242 km/h. Because of its comparatively slight size, Kosmos 482 poses a threat equivalent to that of a meteorite impact on the planet. Langbroek explained, “There is no need to panic, but the hazard isn’t entirely eliminated.”
Scientists are unable to determine the precise point where Kosmos 482 will crash. The spacecraft might crash anywhere from 51.7 degrees north to south latitude, spanning places such as London to Edmonton, Canada. As most of this region is comprised of ocean, scientists think it’s more probable that it will crash into water.
If the spacecraft’s heat shield remains intact during re-entry, there’s a chance the capsule could survive and reach Earth without burning up. However, Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center warned that if the heat shield fails, the spacecraft could become an uncontrollable metal object hurtling from the sky.
Experts also have doubts if the capsule’s 53-year-old parachute system will work well. Earlier unplanned re-entries, including China’s booster rocket in 2022 and Tiangong-1 space station in 2018, primarily ended as debris falling on the sea.
