A new study by the University of Genoa, led by Sabrina Guastavino, suggests that artificial intelligence (AI) could have accurately predicted the May 2024 solar storms. These storms were triggered by the highly active AR13664 region on the Sun.
Researchers believe AI can improve solar storm forecasting by identifying patterns in historical solar events, something that traditional methods relying on human analysis often fail to do.
“Despite advances in observational capabilities, there remains substantial uncertainty in predicting solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs),” the study stated.
How AI Can Predict Solar Storms
AI models can analyze vast amounts of solar data, including:
- Magnetic field variations
- Solar wind speed
- Solar flare activity
By processing these parameters, AI can detect subtle cues that indicate an impending coronal mass ejection (CME), allowing scientists to issue timelier warnings.
What Is a Coronal Mass Ejection?
A CME is a massive eruption of plasma and magnetic fields from the Sun’s corona. These powerful solar events:
- Travel at hundreds of miles per second
- Disrupt power grids, GPS, and communications
- Pose risks to satellites and space missions
According to ISRO, the May 2024 geomagnetic storm was the strongest since 2003, causing significant disruptions.
Solar Activity and Future Predictions
The Sun follows an 11-year solar cycle with peaks (solar maximum) and lows (solar minimum). We are currently in Solar Cycle 25, expected to reach its peak in July 2025.
Scientists have observed higher-than-expected solar activity, but the reason remains unclear.
The Future of AI in Space Weather Science
The study highlights the broader implications of AI in space weather forecasting, stating that AI could:
- Improve CME travel time predictions
- Help refine existing space weather models
- Reduce the impact of solar storms on Earth
As solar activity continues to rise, AI-driven forecasting could become essential in protecting our technology-dependent world.