Election Commission of India (ECI) announced poll dates for Maharashtra, Jharkhand state assembly elections, bypolls of 48 assembly constituencies and 2 parliamentary constituencies across 15 states. Maharashtra will vote for the state assembly elections in a single phase on 20th November and Jharkhand will vote in two phases on 13th and 20th, November, and the results of the elections will be declared on 23rd November. Last week, the results of Haryana and Jammu Kashmir state assembly elections gave a big boost to the BJP and its karyakartas. The BJP cadre were slightly disappointed and disheartened with the the results of 2024 general elections. Though the BJP formed a government at the center with its NDA alliance partners, the leadership and cadre of BJP expected a huge mandate than 2019 general election results. Nearly after four months of 2024 general elections, state assembly elections for Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir took place through various phases.
Many political analysts, opinion and exit polls predicted a huge mandate for Congress in Haryana, National Conference and Congress alliance in Jammu kashmir. There were many reasons for this prediction like farmers unrest, Agniveer scheme, 10 years of anti incumbency and wrestlers protest etc. Four months ago, In the 2024 general elections BJP secured just five lok sabha seats, congress secured another five lok sabha seats in Haryana. After the 2024 general elections, it was the first and big direct fight between BJP and Congress. But BJP managed to secure a thumping hat trick win in Haryana with 48 seats out of 90 seats, which are 8 seats more than 2019 state assembly elections. In Jammu and Kashmir, BJP secured 29 seats mostly from the Jammu region and congress failed to give a tough fight to BJP in Jammu region, seats which were secured by the congress mostly from the Kashmir valley. Because of NC support and its vote share, congress won few seats in Kashmir valley. BJP has secured more votes than any other party in the state with 26 percent, largest party NC, who got 42 seats managed to secure only 23 percent. Haryana and JK results are a big setback for the congress, introspection in congress is important at this time.
However, the people of Haryana and JK kept faith in BJP and Its leadership for their progressive decisions. This win would help BJP in revitalizing the BJP’s grossroot support in other states which are set to face the elections like Maharashtra and Jharkhand. BJP has worked hard and well managed in election engineering to retain power for the third consecutive time. On the other hand, Haryana and JK results created friction in the opposition led INDIA bloc. With the poor performance of congress in both the states, Samajwadi Party unilaterally announced its 6 contesting candidates for 10 seats without taking the cognizance of congress party, which are set face for the bypolls in UP. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has decided to contest independently for the upcoming Delhi assembly elections. This fragmented politics of INDIA alliance gives more advantage and mileage to the ruling BJP. Maharashtra is ready to go for the state assembly elections on . If the congress could have won in Haryana, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in Maharashtra would have been more aggressive. In recent 2024 general elections MVA has upbeat and won 30 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats like in Haryana.But BJP bulldozed Congress in last week’s state assembly elections. At the same time, Unlike Haryana, the fight in Maharashtra will not go alone with the congress. State assembly elections in Maharashtra are more complicated than any other state, two alliances comprising six parties are contesting in Maharashtra. MahaYuti comprising BJP, NCP and Shiv Sena is banking on slew of welfare, Modi’s factor and developmental activities to retain power. On the other hand, MVA is approaching voters on an anti incumbency factor. Inside both the coalitions, there is tussle for power and seat sharing. BJP has managed to consolidate the non jat voters in Haryana, similarly BJP and its alliance partners are experimenting with the same approach to consolidate the micro minority groups in Maharashtra. As part of it, the state government has taken the decision to set up various welfare corporations for Brahmins, Arya Vysyas (Banians), Jains, Teli, Bari, Lonari etc. BJP’s win in Haryana also puts the pressure on the opposition to reassess its strategy to counter the BJP, Congress would have pressure and compromise in seat sharing in MVA. After the 2024 general elections, congress tried to become a dominant player in the INDIA bloc, but Haryana results weakened the congress dominance particularly in coalition negotiations.
Another state, which is set to face the elections in Jharkhand. In the 2019 elections, JMM led an alliance with Congress formed the government in the state and secured 46 seats out of 81 seats. In the 2019 elections, then ruling party BJP could only secure 25 seats, but secured 33.87 percent of vote share which is larger than both JMM and Congress parties together 32.5 percentage. After five years, senior leaders of JMM including former chief minister Champei Soren joined BJP. The JMM and Congress alliance is facing anti-incumbency, internal tussle between various leaders and corruption charges by ED against the Chief minister and JMM chief Hemant Soren. BJP is hoping for anti incumbency, promising good governance, good relations with the union government.
The results of the state assembly elections will not only decide the fate of opposition parties, it will also decide the ruling BJP’s way of functioning as the Modi government is aspiring to bring one nation one election, waqf bill amendment, uniform civil code etc.
Dr. K. Venkatakrishna Rao, Assistant Professor, IIITDM Kurnool and Visiting Fellow, India Foundation, New Delhi.